General Discussion, page-1989

	A Pivotal Presidency

When President Joe Biden leaves office in January, he’ll leave behind him an electric vehicle landscape dramatically different from when he entered the White House.

What will happen to that landscape — with almost 6 million EVs on the roads, a growing charging network and the tax breaks and other financial incentives that have helpedget the market in gear— hinges on who steps into the Oval Office next.

A win for Vice President Kamala Harris and her Democratic Party is unlikely to yield much new legislation, but it will give many of the provisions within the Inflation Reduction Act time to take root. There would also be a likely continuation of EV supply chain funding through the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office.

Vice President Kamala Harris during a Sept. 2 campaign event in Detroit.Photographer: Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

If former President Donald Trump wins the presidency, by contrast, multiple EV-related provisions could bekey targetsfor repeal — especially if Republicans take both houses of Congress.

The clean car tax credit that offers consumers up to $7,500 has long drawn Republican ire. A credit for used EVs could be revoked. And Trump’s administration could opt to close the commercial EVleasing loophole— which offers consumers up to $7,500 toward leases — soon after he enters office, since the executive branch could act on it without having to go through Congress.

Former President Donald Trump addressing the Detroit Economic Club on Oct. 10.Photographer: Sarah Rice/Bloomberg

Fuel-economy and emissions targets are also certain to undergo rewrites, as they did in the previous Trump term, likely easing conditions on automakers but potentially leading to more market chaos as environmental groups and states like California respond with lawsuits.

The advanced manufacturing tax credit is on firmer ground. This credit was designed to nearshore the EV and battery supply chain and has drawnhuge investment.

Still, Trump could make both the purchase and the manufacturing credits harder to access — and he could do so without sign-off from Congress. Most of the $7.5 billion in funds for the US EV charging network should be out the door by the time a new president takes office, but implementation will still matter.

Aside from provisions that can be overturned by a simple stroke of the presidential pen, a split outcome where both Democrats and Republicans maintain some semblance of control would likely leave the status quo more or less intact.

Democrats controlling the White House and losing Congress would mean more of the IRA and fuel-economy standard policies remain, but even a Democratic House could protect some of these policies under a Republican president.

EVs may not have become a central issue in this election, but the outcome of the race will mean the difference between a quickly growing EV market and a more lethargic one.

When US voters cast their ballots on Nov. 5, they’ll help determine what this market looks like for years to come.