SYR investors should hope for a Trump win. His anti-China moves could provide the short-term relief they so urgently need - as opposed to IRA Measures which will take years to become effective - short term relief???
Some posters in here don't seem to realise you don't put flake graphite into an LiB. You put in spherical active anode material. Which means you need to process flake graphite first. To process it, you need an ex-China AAM plant like Vidalia to sell Balama flake graphite to. There is only one other apart from Vidalia which has been built. BTR New Material Group Company (Indonesia). To build and ramp AAM plants takes 3 years including the 45kt Vidalia expansion when they can afford to expand.
I've posted below
@Richo48 well researched earlier post about the progression of the build out of ex-China AAM plants and none will be built or ready to buy flake graphite from Balama in the next 3 years except maybe POSCO in 2 and a bit years.
I too raised my eyebrows when I read SYR plan to sell about 1/3 of their Balama natural graphite capacity to China by 2027. I hope they're right because apart from BTR,
there will be no one else to sell it to regardless how high Trump raises tariffs if he gets in.
POSCO Future Industries (South Korea)
Posco is the only company operational and selling ex China BAM at their 74ktpa Sejong plant. They recently advised that the plant is not profitable being unable to compete with China. They had planned a new 80ktpa plant at Sejong which was going to source graphite from Balama but those plans have been downsized and delayed. According to their website it is now not going to be operational until 2027 or beyond.
BTR New Material Group Company (Indonesia)
In conjunction with Tsingchan a Chinese nickel producer the Morowali BAM plant is already in commissioning or has commenced production of 32ktpa of natural BAM and 48ktpa synthetic BAM. So the first successful ex China plant using natural graphite is ironically Chinese owned.
They purchased the first 10,000 tonne of natural graphite from Syrah Resources in June at US$535 tonne cif. That price is loss making for Syrah, the only reason I can see that they agreed to the transaction is that producing that 10kt of small flake also gives them as a byproduct 2.5kt of large flake which they can sell at a profit.
There is no guarantee that BTR will continue to purchase from Syrah, they could just as easily source natural graphite from China.
There has been some talk, not confirmed, that there are expansion plans.
Westwater Resources (USA)
This company made the very gutsy move of starting construction of their BAM plant in Kellyville, Alabama in 2022 without having the money to complete it. Construction has been halted now for more than a year and despite having offtake agreements for all their product they are still unable to attract finance to complete it. They have a supply agreement with Syrah Resources for natural graphite.
Graphex Technologies LLC
Syrah also had an offtake agreement with Graphex. Their plant has not yet been constructed and is unlikely to be anytime soon.
Their joint venture partner who was going to finance, construct and operate the plant has lost interest and moved on to growing marujuana..
Syrah Resources Limited (USA).Their 11.25ktpa Vidalia plantis the sole operating fully integrated battery anode material plant using natural graphite outside of China. Despite everyone in the industry recognising the importance of this plant, to date ESG, supply chain development, national security and company cooperation have meant nothing, as long as the Chinese product is cheaper battery producers will consider only one selfish short term point, the effect on their bottom line this year. While Syrah’s plant is fully operational they are yet to sell any product at all.
Until tariffs become operative in 2026 there are likely to be few prospects for sales and I would anticipate that battery producers will stock up on Chinese anode material ahead of that date to the limit of their storage capacity.
The Chinese are absolutely astounded at this complete lack of any strategic planning by the West.
Other Companies
Some other companies at various stages of development areInternational Graphite Ltdin Australia who have a small demonstration pilot plant from which they hope to sell product,Talga Group Ltdin Sweden who are held up by mine permitting issues, offtake agreements and finance,Nouveau Monde Incin Canada who seem serious but do not yet have finance,Nextsource Industries Ltdin Mauritius andGotion Technologiesin USA who are facing headwinds due to their Chinese ownership.
Some further projects in early planning stage.
Renescor Resources Limited - Bolivar - Australia
Urbix / Sk On - Mesa, Arizona - USA
Epsilon Advanced Materials - Mumbai - India
Epsilon Advanced Materials - Brunswick, South Carolina - USA
Grafintech Oy / Epsilon - Vaasa - Finland
Mitsubishi Chemicals / Zeon - USA
G6 Energy Corporation - Kearney - Canada
I haven’t checked on the progress of those projects lately but they are unlikely to proceed any time in the near future.
There are another 16 projects including Syrah’s Wilton UK project which have been discussed but which cannot yet be taken seriously.
Synthetic Graphite.
The Western companiesNovonix Limited, Anovion Technologies Inc (USA) and Vianode (Norway)are attempting to compete into the battery market and it remains to be seen how they will fare, I suspect it is not going to be an easy journey. There are numerous companies in this space that have been operating for decades so competition will be fierce.
Mark Thompson MD ofTalga Group Limitedtold me earlier this year that the artificial graphite he will integrate into his battery anode material he is sourcing from Italian company Sangraf International which is part of the Chinese Sanergy Group and currently produces solely for the industrial market.
Disclaimer
All the above has been gleaned from the google so may or may not be correct. As always I an open to corrections, criticism and alternative views
(20min delay)