coal stocks boom except cockatoo, page-10

Weird for me to hear people calling COK a dog - it's one of my best stocks. This time last year it was at 33c, so that's a 60% return in 12 months. The ASX 200 by comparison is exactly the same as 12 months ago!

Apparently I need more dogs in my portfolio!

Has certainly traded strangely since October though - prices flat but volumes up a lot. Maybe instos selling off the shares they got in the SPP?

Ultimately it's fundamentals that will determine the value of the stock and COK is still a fair way away from opening their first big mine in the Surat, and they still need Wiggins and the Missing Link railway finished in that time. Until then they only have Baralaba which is never going to justify current MC.

So COK is a stock to hold til 2015 or so. They're aiming for 14.5Mtpa, with about 5Mtpa coking/PCI and 9.5Mtpa thermal.

Their PCI margin is about $80/t currently (sell for 175, cost 95). Thermal might be $40/t (sell 100, cost 60).

So that would be about $750M profit per annum from mining. Compared to the current MC of $500M.

Obviously these are just ballpark figures and don't take capex into account, only opex, but there's pretty obviously significant upside in the company.

The market isn't blind, it can surely see this. The increased volume with zero price increase makes me wonder what's going on...