I think you are significantly misunderstanding the mindset of both myself and others like @Surandy70 (correct me if i am wrong).My view on the company has been bullish yes. It still remains bullish that the product and deals in place are going to see returns and will be successful.
However, whilst having a bullish outlook on the discussed potential of the company, hard facts need to be considered over the "short term" and that is to also ensure the company remains operational and listed as well as myself seeing some returns to the investment I have made.
I have done substantial research and continue to do so into this stock and have provided substantial information on the forum for everyone. The fact is, it comes across that you are now being naïve to the current state of the company in the outlook that its going to be a $1 company again.
Yes, positive news has occurred the last 18 months. Yes, they are making strides in the right direction. HOWEVER, some of the commentary from the company is either contradictory or it has blatantly misrepresented the state of things. i.e.. "robust sales" when the sales haven't shown an increase in the quarter on quarter (refer to todays AGM preso) and time frames indicated for their related milestones ie. Reimbursement time frame and the milestone 2.1/2.2 for the Hologic deal.
We were told:
1. Once completion of the Hologic milestone 2 occurred, we would received $600,000USD in revenue. Not the case as this is now all of a sudden broken up into two tranches. Milestone 2.1 and Milestone 2.2 and by all accounts, none of the $600,000USD has been received at this stage.
2. 5 week time frame on reimbursement rate from September is now blown out to December which would make it 15-18 weeks from the board review? That is also assuming it actually comes in December. I would also hazard a guess that they intend to announce the CLIA waiver study start and reimbursement rate confirmation at the same time.
3. Robust sales with Febridx making good strides in the college healthcare market as its niche. Initial product orders for the upcoming flu season etc had been received. This is not the case as the entire revenue again for the last quarter was Viradx sales.
4. Accounting methods to ensure revenue appears consistent per quarter to the previous years with Hologic, even though revenue has already been received as cash on hand. They are "recognising" the revenue each quarter for the time being which "whilst is accounting approved by William Buck" does give a false sense of where the company is performing. This is because the Hologic work is ongoing for 18 months so they are claiming the revenue each month until complete. I get it, however you then need to look at the underlying revenue for growth in the company based on the difference between the "recognised revenue" and the "total revenue" to see if there is any further increase to things.
If you refer to the revenue chart above showing the breakdown in Revenue ($'000) you can clearly see that:
In Q1 FY 2024, $1.1Million in revenue was generated however, $1Million was from services revenue. Only $111,000 in product sales which was primarily Viradx sales. In fact, the company didn't provide commentary on where this product revenue was split in that quarterly report however Febridx wasn't marketed in the US at this time.
In Q2FY24 they generated $200,000 in revenue in product sales and the primary amount of services revenue was from Hologic.
In Q3FY24 they generated $3.3Million in revenue however $1.5Million was "recognised revenue" from Hologic with the difference the other actual contract payments they have. $700,000 in product revenue from Viradx in the current corresponding quarter was received. This was based on the initial US launch of Febridx and Viradx, however all sales were Viradx.
In Q4FY24 they generated $300,000 in product sales and attributed the slow down to the run off on infection rates. Again, services revenue was high because of the recognised revenue for the original $10Million payment PLUS they received the $400,00USD for the first milestone.
Now, look at the first quarter without for the new year - there was no increase to product sales even though they expanded into 3 new regions (AUS, NZ and Belgium) and had their first intro orders for the US flu season for both products and signed deals with Thermo Fisher as well. There was also an overall reduction in revenue as a whole and again, this included the "recognised revenue" - this is why the share price dropped like it did.
What that tells us is that every distributor agreement would at best take 12 months to product meaningful revenue orders and at best, in the current state of things, if that is the case, would draw the company very very close to no cash on hand unless they produce substantial orders in the next 12 months, or sign on some major new deals.
That all is because CLIA waiver is 12 months away, so we cant guarantee substantial orders for the products over the next 12 months. The BARDA funding can only be used for the CLIA study, so you can wipe that away from liquid cash for use in the business. That means with no substantial deals in 12 months, the company has no cash to fund its quarterly burn.
So, without quoting 17 of your previous ramping posts (and yes, they are simply ramping posts), please identify for me, where the current state of things sit for you. The way I see it, still a negative trend on share price and the company doesn't give a shit about it. The Hologic deal is the the current bank roll and without it, the company would currently be f*ed. Product is going to take forever to take off given the delay in arranging CLIA waiver. "Top shareholders" aren't going to invest more in this now because there is nothing really fruitful happening of note outside of what we already know and volume is minimal.
I will reiterate that 50Million shares is essential for robust movement in the price (Refer to FDA approval movement) which is completely possible because the top holders can easily SELL SHARES to allow the volume to occur.
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