Looking at a sample of 9 years ending in one and then trying to draw a conclusion about how the stock market will do in 2011 from that small piece of past information is a statistically invalid methodology.
It's just as statistically flawed as "form" used by losing punters betting on horses such as, "This horse has started five times at this track and won three times. It's got to be a good bet in this race."
You'd do just as well tossing a coin:
Heads the stock market will rise in 2011.
Tails the stock market will fall in 2011.
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Last
8,589.3 |
Change
-13.700(0.16%) |
Mkt cap ! n/a | |||
| Open | High | Low |
| 8,603.0 | 8,617.0 | 8,572.1 |
| XJO (ASX) Chart |