2011 forecast, page-22

A week and a half long without trading, or looking at markets make me feel a lot better. (I lied, I was still checking the state of markets from time to time use my mobile device).

Sometimes, I feel we can see the trees, but missed the whole forest.

For example, we often try to find clues from something really remote, I mean literally, millions of miles away from us;

Some times, we try to retrofit numbers, of course, it is fun to get some perfect fit if you know which variable and constant to use;

Some times, we just cut a piece of historical chart, and discovered the similarity between now and then, and get excited;

Or some times, we just connect dots as we wish, and draw a line to tell market to follow...

Well, it is well and true you will be successful from time to time, the problem is can you do it constantly?

Then back to the same argument, nobody can get it right all the time, why me?

Then someone might tell you, you have 50% chance to get it right if you flip a coin, why bother?

Well, I heard a say, if you have a proper money and risk management system, you can win the flip coin game......

Really? I doubt it.

The truth is you still need to guess more right than wrong to stay and win the game.

The winning edge!

This is why we are talking here, right?

My little experience is other people's wining edge cannot be passed on to you. You cannot copy it somehow. But no harm to know it, analyse it, and modify it to suit your personality.

Just like Warren Buffett, I guess there are millions of copycats around, but there is only one stinky rich Buffett.

If you want to win this game, you have to have your wining edge of your own.

Good luck everyone.