scotiabank says: potash to be top pick in 2011, page-5

all depends on potash prices

if potash prices are around $500/t, I think $5 within 12 months is too much but it is possible

ELM has around 190m shares & options on issue

at 1.2mtpa production at $500/t revenue, my calcs have Sintoukola earning around $260m profit per annum

capex could be $1.2b or 4.5 years payback

so I reckon a takeover for 1.5 years profit (six year payback) is possible

1.5 x $260m profit / 190m shares = $2.05

my guess is when JORC is finished, takeover offer at $2.00 to $2.50 is possible

regards