An important play coming up tonight.
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And it may determine if we have Phase 2 of Li stocks rise (30-50%) in near future.
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So why is important tonight?.
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For those reading my posts, I have been talking about Phase 2. We have had Phase 1, where many Li stocks (not all) gained around 30 to 50%. Some may have lost a bit, some all, but many have kept that 30%+ gains.. As I wrote last weekend, we need a Phase 2 for this to happen - which will not only push others who are ahead to the next level, but those lagging as well to current 30-50% level from their lows.
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There are 2 numbers I have talked about. Ganfeng keeping above 37, ALB above 106. That's a start. That's the minimum.
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So lets take where we are..
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Ganfeng after coming close to a 52 week high last week, was in some strife. Reached 37 this week. But last 2 days very strong. Both Ganfeng and Tianqi made 10% gain yesterday, Ganfeng made another 4% today. Sitting today at 43.36, under 5% from its 52 week high. So its doing what we wanted it to do. So one tick.
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Now lets look at ALB. Currently sitting at 106.45, above the number I have been calling 106. So good from that point. Currently tick, but not a firm one.The key question is - will ALB (and US Li stocks) keep in tandem with Chinese stocks?.
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As has been the play last few months, one zone has led and other followed, something I have written often. Chinese have taken the lead. This is the time that US Li stocks, and mainly ALB, to at least keep the level. And what is that level? Stay above 106, worst case don't lose 102 zone.
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If US Li stocks at least replicate something what has happened with Chinese Li stocks in last 2 days, ALB should close above 110, much above 106. But currently, in futures, its still panicking, in red.
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The best case scenario - ALB staying above 106 tonight, Chinese staying green. I feel this will lead to Phase 2. It will be very bullish for sector and ASX Li stocks. If that doesn't happen, we may have to take it day by day. But over all Phase 2 happening odds still in favour, lets hope it stays that way. All the best.
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