seems to have got to a stale mate position, every time in the last week we have looked to move up, we seem to have had someone keeping us in check.
the value is definitely still there finx, RFE is undervalued immensely even without the latest news. have attached an article here that will give us food for thought.
remembering this research note was released THIS YEAR in february, when gas prices in the US are historically at there highest. the gas price when this was released was $5mcf, the current price is $4.17 but in a general up trend till february next year.
500 bcf = 500cps, 6 month target of $1.89, on 72.8BCFE 2P reserve EV / 2P Reserve ($/bcfe) $1.24, west tulsa with 3 wells on line, valuation $2.71 and We expect a significant catalyst within the next few weeks associated with a reserve upgrade, which will likely be substantial (increase from ~70bcfe to ~95bcfe).
so whats happened since then
first of all RFE didnt upgrade reserves in 6-8 weeks to 95 bcfe, it was a 7 months later to 143.1 BCFE, at the normal time of year for RFE reserve upgrades and smashed the hartley figure.
the note also stated that there had been weather delays slowing down drilling.
not long after this note the gas prices started falling in a normal weather related cycle. david made it clear that major drilling was not going to occur in these conditions. at the same time all major US companies state they are going to move to a more liquid focus.
with a valuation of $2.71 and target of $1.89 by August, Hartleys low and behold, start telling their clients to sell, down to a price of $.35.
unbelievable, this has to be the biggest flip flop i have ever seen. RFE was over 50c when the reserves where released in September, but thanks to Hartleys and there ridiculous recommendation RFE is struggling to get back to 50c after coming of a low of 35c, the direct responsiblity of these clowns. on Hartleys figures our new reserves are worth $1.43 in SP alone, West Tulsa now has 8 producing wells with 16 1P reserve new targets and currently has 2P reserves over 1.4 million barrels of oil plus associated liquids and gas.
we now have 12000 acres in a hot new oil play as well but all this can now only equate to an sp of 46c????????
finx, you are 100% in my opinion, RFE is cheap cheap cheap at the moment. another way to look at it is RFE is the 86th largest energy company by market capitalisation yet we have the 69th highest assets and 60th highest revenue.
Hartleys imho has been a poisonous association for RFE, lets hope Baillieus can get the point across to more people.
GO RFE
RFE Price at posting:
46.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held