Below is LLM take on VAU Hedging Analysis1. Impact of Hedged Position:VAULT Minerals locked in A$2,821/oz for delivery through to September 2026.At current prices of A$4,100/oz, the company forfeits A$1,279/oz in potential revenue on these ounces2. Aggregate Loss on Hedging:Total hedged ounces: 240,519 oz.Lost revenue: 240,519 oz × A$1,279 = A$307.5 million in potential unrealized revenue compared to market prices.3. Proportion of Hedged Production:With FY25 gold sales guidance of 390,000–430,000 oz, the hedge represents ~56–62% of annual production.While this provides some stability in cash flow, it greatly reduces the company’s ability to capitalize on the ongoing gold price rally.---Evaluation of the Hedging Strategy1. Rationale for the Hedge:Companies typically hedge to protect against downside risk, especially during periods of high capital expenditure or when leverage is high. However, VAULT has zero debt and a strong cash position, reducing the need for aggressive hedging.The decision may reflect a cautious approach to managing financial stability, but it is overly conservative in hindsight.2. Opportunity Cost:The hedge locks the company out of significant upside potential in a favorable gold price environment.With its AISC guidance at A$2,250–A$2,450/oz, the unhedged ounces could have generated ~A$1,650/oz in margin at current prices, compared to the ~A$371/oz margin for hedged ounces.3. Strategic Implications:This highlights a potential misjudgment of market dynamics, as the gold price has been trending upward due to macroeconomic factors like inflation concerns and geopolitical instability.---What Could Have Been Done BetterPartial Hedging:Limiting the hedge to 20–30% of production would have allowed the company to benefit from rising prices while securing a safety net for some production.Rolling Hedges:Implementing shorter-duration rolling hedges would have allowed flexibility to adjust to market conditions.
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- Ann: 2024 AGM Presentation
VAU
vault minerals limited
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37.5¢

Ann: 2024 AGM Presentation, page-2
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Last
37.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(1.32%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.550B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
37.5¢ | 38.0¢ | 36.8¢ | $21.06M | 56.11M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 229253 | 37.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
38.0¢ | 284148 | 13 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 229253 | 0.375 |
27 | 799116 | 0.370 |
32 | 1090587 | 0.365 |
37 | 795271 | 0.360 |
15 | 640005 | 0.355 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.380 | 284148 | 13 |
0.385 | 523042 | 17 |
0.390 | 352701 | 11 |
0.395 | 506446 | 13 |
0.400 | 1061913 | 24 |
Last trade - 16.12pm 30/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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VAU (ASX) Chart |