re: give it a valuation..just for fun.. I reckon the PE argument, (which is flawed for other reasons when you do industry comparisons), highlights where IGO is in the cycle of things.
CDCHI1 suggests a minimum minelife in excess of 5 years. Earnings on an annualised basis are around 40 cents . Take off tax leaves you with 28 cents. Times 5 years equates to $1.40. Take off a bit of time value gives you the current share price.
That should be the worst case scenario, as underneath the net earnings you have the cash benefit of the items currently being depreciated-ie that cash is added to the valuation. (This should be enough to outweigh any negative nickel price movements in the short to medium term,plus they have some residual hedging in place).
The current price therefore looks about as low as it should go without any more MRX situations.
Now the company is paying a dividend that does not represent all the above cash flow.
Any reasonable valuation has to review their ground position around existing operations ,for a brownfields discovery. The chances of this are quite good.
Also look at other exploration plays-appear to be well thought out, some free carried, though none have generated too much excitement to date. They still have a value and should be added to the equation.
The investment in MRX has an adjusted book value of around $7m- obviously any further moves on this front will involve a more detailed evaluation reducing the risk of error.Board representation should be soon.
So what does it look like?
Net cash (of all debt) $15m
"Business value based on earnings stream" -around $120m (plus or minus 15%)
3rd party value of brownfields(-what would someone pay for their ground excluding the current resource base ,but including the underground access already in place), at least $5m,possibly $10m.
3rd party value of greenfields exploration interests, say $1-4m.
MRX holding-say $5m-give it a penalty value until future direction clarified., current market value around $7.5m.
Grand total= Worst case $126m-ie on 104m shares, around current price.
= Medium case $150m, ie around $1.40.
= Higher case $172m ,ie around $1.60m.
Out of interest, not too many other producers offer such a positive outlook.
Sure the price may fluctuate with nickel price movements, but the underlying cash flow is compelling.
Cheers,TAS
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