Hi
@rohop - the fact you redacted the simply wall street bit makes me think you know it's all algorithm based and needs to be looked at with caution. Having said that, I'm not disregarding the analysis and encourage anyone who might come back with commentary to put forward evidence or opinion rather than just sprout negative comments.
IMHO:The SWS analysis has been largely unchanged for a couple of years - the snowflake analysis (value, future, past, health, dividend) has strengthened over time and once we have clarity on the dividend, this will fill out nicely.
For those who are familiar with net cashflow analysis, announcement of a dividend is one of the most significant events - the amount of the payout (60-80% of net profit) is not actually the greatest concern, having an actual dividend figure allows us to complete the WACC and NCF with a lower margin of error. We don't need a dividend but it is a very public indicator of A2M's use of capital. There are lots of external uncertainties around A2M (geopolitical tensions, financial tariffs, birth rates etc) but one of the biggest internal uncertainties is management's intention for the ~ 1Bn of cash sitting on the books. Long term this is not a good strategy but in the moment it creates a lot of options for use of capital which means A2M doesn't have to take on debt or (worse) issue equity to fund the next projects.
Whilst moves from management may have been slower than any of us would like, I believe it is a strong team and DB is a proven strategist. The worst thing that a management team could do is make rash decisions to appease shareholders so they have to bear the criticisms over the years on HC and the like before they announce a strategic decision, the share price goes through the roof and everyone says what a fantastic job they've done.
Patience is hard when we all want to see instant return on our investment but in the case of A2M I see very little risk which is far more important. It's worth management spending the time (even if that is a number of years) to ensure the market sees long term growth and adjusts valuations accordingly.
There is really one way to know with any level of certainty what the future holds and that is to study up on how to run a discount cashflow analysis on the numbers we know and trust (ie. audited and published). To do this properly takes a bit of time (for me at least) but I'll do it once we have a confirmed dividend figure. I do think SWC is pretty optimistic but I believe the position A2M is in right now would put an accurate valuation somewhere between 2 - 3x the current share price.
For those who have been involved with A2M for some time, one thing I do know - this is the fun part!!
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