LYC NPV scenario analysis - rare earths prices and WACC
Mt Weld REO basket price, US$/kg, (100% REO basis)
WACC 30 40 50 60 70 80
10% 1.62 2.82 4.01 5.21 6.40 7.60
11% 1.49 2.60 3.70 4.80 5.90 7.01
12% 1.38 2.40 3.42 4.45 5.47 6.49
13% 1.28 2.23 3.18 4.13 5.08 6.03
14% 1.19 2.07 2.96 3.85 4.74 5.63
15% 1.10 1.94 2.77 3.60 4.43 5.26
So based on the fact that basket values are currently between $70-80 LYC can justify a shareprice of $5.00 based on a high 15% WACC or $6-7 based on a more reasonable 11-12% WACC.
valuation sensitivities based on basket value
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