best2 keep buying sdl before big boys next wk, page-10

You are right, the big boys never sleep! I see this very simply (as every time I try and outsmart myself, I lose a little of my key holdings).

1. Without getting carried away with Technical analysis, just draw a straight line between now and anticipated .80. You now have to guess whether the news will be released next week or end March. Whichever way you draw the line, you will get the picture that we are not overbought. SPs run up before announcements so you can forget March and in any case, that was a "before end of March" indication.
2. If you do a linear regression, you will see a channel shift as someone mentioned earlier. Retracements are shallow and are "resting" periods. I expect low .60s to be that point.
3. There is great potential to the upside - in multiples.
- Finance. I understand that the SDL guys were talking to African Bank recently. There is financial interest from both Camaroon and Congo govts who now have a major stake in the infrastructure - rail, port etc... Other parties will need to pay for transport privileges. We know what that means to others in similar positions in australia.
- Resource upgrades. 100mt is being intimated more often.
- Valuations are based on $60 ish per IO ton. We are way in excess of this re spot with upward forecasts. Even at contract rates, it is significantly higher.

So, here is the dilemma if you are an investor hoping to make a few bucks on a scalp. The big news is likely to come together - but we don't know when. Could be anytime and press reports consistently say "imminent". The risk now, which has tripped up traders three times, is that the next run will be a major move but a retracement is most likely to be a minor one.