SVL silver mines limited

Ann: Capital Raising Presentation, page-6

  1. 322 Posts.
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    Well said and none of these funds are earmarked as equity to sit alongside project finance / funding IF the mine actually goes into development which means at least one more big, decent raise sometime into 2026. I'm going to go into some detail below because retail investors have to understand miners approaching development - more things go wrong at this stage than any other and I read a lot of comments here that frankly are more relevant to an explorer than a developer. If the terms below confuse you, you probably should be rethinking why you're investing in miners at this life stage.

    Mines never get 100% LVR. Banks/Resource lenders want equity alongside their risk, and they want hedging and they'll probably also want options. That will be a significant lick of money all banging into the options headwinds, annoyed existing shareholders and in my experience, mining stocks tend to tank through the development phase. Best times to invest IMHO is during exploration, sell as it approaches development and then rebuy after they've done two or three quarters of production. That lost one is critical.. Development and commissioning is when 7 to 8 figure unbudgeted expenses / problems magically arise like discovering your entire electricals blowing and needing to be fully reinstalled or like the other recent silver developer/wannabe producer, Cobar Consolidated at Wonawinta. They discovered when they turned the switch on that the slimes/clay made their entire metallurgical process baloney. As an old mate of mine used to say, 'oh bugger, we actually have a mine this time'. Sometimes it's just better to be an explorer and pass off the development risk to another mug.

    As someone with this on my watchlist.. I've also been awaiting their updated economics/feasibility numbers from 6 years ago before judging this company.. Besides grades and tonnes, there's been a lot changing in capex and opex costs for the mining sector in the past 6 years.

    The last I read these updated numbers were due before year end (which is a couple of weeks away). Reading page 16 of the raise presentation, they now say H2, 2024 (which I'm guessing is a typo as should be 2025 as that would be April to June 2024 - 6 months ago). That's a material slippage. I've done feasibilities - if you need 3 to 6 months to finish it after spending years prepping, it means you don't have the numbers anywhere near settled or they're not what you need which annoys me a little as the company has been foreshadowing that its nearly finished for the past 6 months. Therefore, I'd be very hesitant about that target $15/oz AISC as it is likely based on numbers that are either really old or they themselves are not able to vouch for or they'd have released more data - which in itself is hocus pocus for a developer - e.g. AISC doesn't include development CAPEX. it's like looking at a vacant site and judging the house you plan to build on your rates, power and water usage, not on the cost to build, fit and furnish.

    I find it troubling that there is now a big capital raise in place of updated feasibility numbers. Investors are no closer to knowing if this is even an economic deposit. There's $7m in the till - if I thought I was sitting on a banger, I'd wait a couple of months get those numbers out, let the investors digest them (maybe get some research coverage) and then do a raise off the back of it but here we are.

    Yes the fundraising talks about more approvals and engineering work needed - $10m is a big number which indicates a lot of work that was either not in the feasibility or has changed to the extent that the feasibility is not accurate at all.

    FID (Final Investment Decision) isn't due until end 2025 and yet they're acquiring more freehold land for a mine that may never go ahead.. um why would you raise $7m (effectively 5% of current issued capital) to buy land that you cannot decide is worth it or not?

    To be brutally honest, this feels like the economics don't stack up and they're playing for time hoping that one of their drill rigs jags something big like a bit of lithium or gold. If that's the case, then they're an explorer and they're wasting their time pushing ahead with development (approvals, engineering, property purchases, etc) and wasting investor money. In which case, there's going to be a lot of disappointed investors going in to this based on anything more than a good and detailed exploration program.

    I will sit and wait. Caveat Emptor and DYOR.

 
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