Picked this article up from a database. Source is an industry newletter called Nuclear Fuel. The nub is that China will need a lot more uranium than officially stated.
China's uranium demand could hit 24,600 mt a year by 2020 13 December 2010 Nuclear Fuel NUF
China will need up to 24,600 metric tons of uranium a year by 2020 under a high nuclear power growth scenario the government is studying, a senior Chinese nuclear official said late last month. Under a lower-growth scenario, the annual demand would still be 19,507 mtU in 2020.
Addressing an international symposium of the World Nuclear Association and the China Nuclear Energy Association November 25 in Beijing, Cao Shudong, director of the planning and development department of China National Nuclear Corporation, showed projections of uranium and nuclear fuel cycle services to 2020 under two scenarios of nuclear power growth. A low-growth scenario projected 78 nuclear power units would be operating in China and another 50 would be under construction by 2020. Under a high-growth scenario, 100 nuclear units would be operating at that date and 50 would be under construction.
He did not specify the units' generating capacity, but the majority of the units under construction in China are about 1,000 MW, or 1 gigawatt. China now has 34 reactors with a total generating capacity of nearly 37 GW in operation and 26 units totaling 28.4 GW under construction.
The central government is considering the scenarios and is expected to soon decide which reactor projects will be launched during the next five-year plan, which begins in 2011. The government's current goal is to have 40 GW by 2020, but Chinese industry officials expect the government to approve at least 70 GW for operation in 2020, and perhaps 80 GW or even 100 GW or more by 2020.
The latter figures, however, are considered less likely, according to Chinese nuclear officials at the symposium.
Cao's figures, which he said after the presentation were based on "industry common sense," projected annual requirements of between 11,551 mtU in 2015 and 19,507 mtU in 2020 under the low-growth scenario. Under the high-growth scenario, 14,000 mtU/year of natural uranium be needed in 2015 and 24,600 mtU in 2020. The amount of UF6 conversion needed in all cases would be identical to that of natural uranium.
Cao's figures showed requirements for enrichment services of 6,441 mt SWU in 2015 and 11,400 mt SWU in 2020 under the low-growth scenario. Under the high-growth one, China's nuclear power plants would need 9,000 mt SWU in 2015 and 16,600 mt SWU in 2020. The demand for fabricated fuel assemblies would reach 1,260 mt and 2,000 mt in 2015 under the low scenario and 1,600 mt in 2015 and 2,500 mt in 2020 under the high scenario.
Cao said that to meet these requirements, "we will rely on our own supply to a very large extent," but "this does not prevent us from cooperating with many other countries." China is already self-sufficient in some areas, such as fuel fabrication, but its current natural uranium production � which he did specify and which is said to be a state secret � is not sufficient to fuel the country's burgeoning nuclear power program in the near term, according to the WNA's Steve Kidd.
Cao said the Chinese government is "encouraging the industry to set up [inventories] to even out market volatility." He also said there was a plan to reunite uranium exploration and mining in the same structure at CNNC, which is an industrial conglomerate. They were separated some years ago.
Western industry officials said China will import more than 11,000 mt of uranium in 2010, more than its total imports during the last 10 years. That figure, they said, is a clear indication companies are building up inventories to guard against future shortages and locking in current prices.
One Western utility fuel official said Chinese utilities have full state backing to take on this kind of expense, while his company and others are constrained by budget considerations.
Cao said that to accompany the recent acceleration of Chinese nuclear power plant construction, CNNC is expanding the scope of its domestic U exploration effort, looking for deposits as deep as 1,500 meters. There are very promising resources in the Xinjiang province and Inner Mongolia, he said, giving "very good prospects for meeting our own needs in the future." But for the near term, the country needs foreign U supply; he said CNNC "aims to establish two or three very reliable sources of supply" outside China.
CNNC has established companies to mine and mill uranium in Africa, Australia and Canada, he said.
Currently, only two companies are allowed to procure uranium for Chinese utilities: CNNC and Cgnpc Uranium Resources Co. Ltd., or CGN-URC.
CNNC has a long-term agreement, to 2020, with Cameco for 23 million pounds U3O8, according to Cameco's Ken Seitz, who also spoke at the symposium.
During the meeting November 24, Cameco and CGN-URC signed a contract providing for a supply of 29 million lb. U3O8 to 2025, Seitz said.
CGN-URC now only procures uranium for its own reactors, but a company official said it also wants to become a procurement contractor for other Chinese utilities that will operate nuclear power plants. The company's chief engineer, Peng Xinjiang, told the symposium CGN-URC wants to expand cooperation with overseas partners through joint ventures, shareholdings and consortia, and to "exchange information" with the WNA and the CNEA.
Cgnpc has joint ventures for uranium exploration and production -- Semizbay Uranium in Kazakhstan and in the Navoi region of Uzbekistan. Besides Cameco, it procures uranium from Areva and from Paladin Resources, he said, adding that letters of intent have been signed with BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. Cgnpc recently signed a long-term agreement with Areva for 20,000 mtU.�Ann MacLachlan, Beijing
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