SMN - Chart, page-3626

Hi Macca

The FOMO flashes when your a chartist are common to see. My comments about the $3 mark are about getting to $3 and sustaining it like CSL did.
Not flashes where for some minutes in the day some greedy fool pays way way over the price.

Take a look at a recent one with SMN . A 4 day rise from 50 to 1.29. The day before the last days rise the SP was 67 Then some fool paid 1.29 at one stage during the day and the SP closed that day at 95. Only 1 trade was made where the seller got 1.29. Any sellers the next day could only get about 1.00 and that didn't last long.

That 2016 rise didn't make $3,but it came close. That Flash some weeks on the way up, but again in that last week some fool paid too much up to 2.98 then 10 weeks later the SP closed at 1.70. Some loss in 10 weeks. Some years later 2020 the SP got to 23c.

Sure when the FAA approval finally arrives, I am expecting some form of flash. More than likely well over the $1 mark. It's where it settles that's important in the long run after a bit of mania. Sustainable grow like the beginning of CSL.

My expectations wish-list something like this.

Currently 40-50 , FAA approval to 1.60 , profit taking correction B-wave to 1.25, C-wave extention to $2.10 . That's sustainable. Then the cycle repeats, correction followed by extention..

If this flash goes crazy towards the 2.50-3.00 then I will do as I did with BRN when it went through the craziest flash I have participated in. I'll take 15% of my holding off the table and wait for the correction.

I had seed capital shares at 0.066c, The SP built, corrected, built , corrected. At about 67c Mercedes announced using one of their chips in a proto-type concept car. It went crazy for 2 weeks.. With these flashes you have to let them run. Two weeks 67 to 2,.34. Follow by a severe correction in just 1 week down to 1.33, huge.

I had seen this in the charts a number of times before, flash, severe correction to be followed by what I call a Flash DCB (Dead Cat Bounce). These type of Flash B-wave bounces usually bounce into the 50-61% FIB retrace zone of the severe downturn. This flash DCB only lasted 1 week. I sold 15% of my holdings at just before that 50% FIB. It's hard to sell during such a period of volatility but I had my trade sell price order already set.
That flash DCB went from 1.33 to 1.89 is just a matter of days and almost reached that 61% FIB.

I only sold 15%, but I was trying to avoid CGT. With the 50% long holder CGT discount and by rationalising some of my underwater species carry losses I paid no CGT. I easily free-carried the rest of my BRN shares and banked significant money into my species investment fund, On reflection, I should have sold 30% or more, but in my tax bracket, paying the government that money was like pulling teeth.
Chart below. Needless to say, as you can see what happened next, that Mercedes news, while true, was a dud as there was no serious money involved. Lessons learned.


So after all this waffling, if I see a flash rise after the FAA approval surfaces and if it gets to above 2,50, I'll continue to let it run to where it's going and wait for that severe correction. Then wait for the flash DCB to start and sell 15% just before that 50% FIB. If the flash DCB doesn't eventuate, I'll just continue to hold as it is only just one of my what-if tactics.

I personally don't think that we will see 2.50 or above in that first flash rise, however it's impossible to tell just how many greedy FOMO fools are out there willing to over-buy at any price.

Flash rises have nothing to do with long term sustainable grow, that relies on revenue and regular payment of dividends like CSL. That $2m from Delta for already installed unit on aircraft, when the FAA approval surfaces, while good, is not going fund any immediate dividends.

Just the way I deal with the charts so that I am not surprised by what plays out. So DYOR.

cheers Lies