You might want to adjust your modelling to account for 30% that Nippon and JFE will take from Jan 1.. I'm just working out Qld operations here.
Historically BW 12mt and Daunia 5mt was full year. But lets say 10mt BW and 5mt Daunia. We are assuming equity sales of 15mt for Qld per guidance )around mid point)
Therefore in second half the quidance for equity sales should be approx 2.5mt (Daunia) & 3.5mt (BW) - 30% taken away for BW. First half 2.5mt (Daunia) and 5mt (BW)
Therefore FY2025 Daunia 5mt and BW is 8.5mt. Total QLD equity sales is 13.5mt
I did some modelling over 6 months ago with the help and infor from the guys on the forum and I have adjusted the price of HCC, SHCC and the SSCC based on HCC at $200USD and the sales mix of each mine at exchange rate 65 cents
Based on hags formula for royalties in QLD it now calculautes to approx $750m. So royalties just for Qld $750m.
Not sure if the cost of $140-$155 includes admin etc (ALL IN) or not. I think not but could be wrong. But I have put in $155.
I get this total EBITDA full year for Qld of $835 million
Maybe I have it all wrong?
You can then work out NSW operations.
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