SMN - Chart, page-3664

Hi Longreach

You seem to be intent on finishing my sentences for me. Your interpretation of my posts is wrong.

There are different forms of flash rises Sustainable based on serious evidence, unstainable based on rumour.

On the charts many daily gaps are created, mostly filled. However there is a term called breakout gaps when the company goes through a serious trend change due to irrefutable evidence.

Today MSB announced FDA approval for one of their products Here is the quote

MESOBLAST’S RYONCIL® IS THE FIRST U.S. FDA-APPROVED MESENCHYMAL
STROMAL CELL (MSC) THERAPY

Its the first stem cell therapy for just one target application where no alternate exists. In the pipeline they have treatments for other similar applications. It's a game breaker.

Also today

MESOBLAST TO BE ADDED TO NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX

The SP at opening created a gap 2.02 to 2.35, breakout gap. The SP closed at 3.05. Serious trend change with guaranteed income to follow.
It's started a flash rise. This flash rise will run and more than likely create a series of gaps and some will fill. Depending on how much mania it attracts it could run hard. The addition to that Nasdaq Biotech index on 23 Dec provides a strong guarantee of that.

Even the most sustainable flash rise will experience a correction when they are strongly over-bought. These corrections usually fill some gaps and they are normal chart functions. I accept that a 23-38% FIB retracement is fairly normal.

Example in theory.
MSB Low for the year was .26. It went through a building phase to 2.02 where the flash rise begins. Already hit 3.05.

In the circumstances I consider a moderate flash rise would be about to 5.40. Usually In the first instance of these trend breaking rises a 23% FIB retracement is fairly normal. So .26 to 5.40 23% FIB retracement would be about down to 4.20. Not a wise call to yell abandon ship at that point, unless the speed of that 1.20 drop is very very fast. these corrections usually play out over time. next.

The C-wave upwards extentions using FIBs is indicating a conservative 23% FIB extention is 6.60, a 38% FIB extention is 7.40 and a 50% FIB extention is 8.00.

When one of these extentions play outs then another 23-38% retracement is again on the cards Beit from 7.40 or 8.00. This is sustainable normal grow behaviour. NVDA has been through 3 flash rises with normal corrections attached. the first serious correction was 23% the second 38% and both had extentions.

Unstainable flash rises made on assumptions and rumour, Very common with medical stocks with anticipated success in the lead up to FDA approval.
When the FDA denies approval and requires further evidence for a sundry different reasons the SP plummets. MSB has had two notable failed attempts with the FDA before this final approval. SP went from 60 to 9.30 back to 96 up to 5.40 then back to 26.

BRN rise was based of news from Mercedes that they had a chip that they had on trial to test in one of their prototype concept cars. No news surfaced from BRN about revenue related deals with Mercedes. The flash rise was on the assumption that revenue would cascade in. SP went from a low that year of 36 to 2.34 and has since seen 16.

It had an incredible short strong decline 42% in just 5 days, then had a flash DCB because fools assume that it was again a bargain. The signals were so obvious,

Some flash rises are good and others are not. I prefer to see a building phase before a flash rise unless there is hard evidence. With SMN I see currently no building phase. It might happen when Boeing finally delivers evidence to the FAA to examine.

DYOR

cheers Lies