There are several posters who are here purely to stir the pot. "Ambulance chasers". They have no interest in MAY which, when combined with their absolute lack of knowledge (about the company, the industry, or the market), results in posts which are quite nonsensical and repetitive. One or two cross the line and defame the CEO, and are being lined up by the company for some ASIC action in the near future (I know the company and AP have had an absolute gut-full and despite the fact that this is a public forum, understand the damage such comments cause them, the staff, and the shareholders). Good to see one more raising his hand for that honour.
Anyone doubting the ability of a company to access your personal details and commence action against you in the courts should be reminded that this is quite common (for exmample - see
https://www.investsmart.com.au/investment-news/the-habits-of-empire-die-hard-as-it-is-writ-large/33022). The court transcripts (and clear directives provided) following such cases would label comments such as "He has no trust" as libel. [As an aside, such cases from Empire became quite common, hence the reason for some here to "purge" their posting history on several stocks to ensure that any comments "close ot the line" were removed from public circulation].
Ego sum reus illius, amicus meus.I saw a pretty *DOH* comment from one poster who implied that this four week delay impacted the ability of the company to finance the 2025 program. The sort of passive-agressive implication that things are not going well. An intentional subversive downramp, for want of a better description. Hopefully the average HC reader can quickly tell that such comments are designed to be damaging, not as down-ramps but simply as a way for some non-holder to get their jollies. Unfortunately we can't stop that sort of rubbish, but I encourage everyone not to engage with those type of people as it simlpy fuels the flames.
The reality of the current situation is that MAY have - yes, yet again - encountered a delay. This time the delay is 100% out of their control: from what I have pieced together, hurricane-related power outages at the docks caused stevedoring problems which lead to delays in the unloading and onward transportation of supplies. Those problems are resolved now, and all supplies - except for one or two [undescribed] items which will arrive by air freight, as planned. Yes, the timeline has slipped; but the confimation yesterday that "all players are on board" was clear, not just in words but in pictures. Irrefutable proof that AP and the team are committed to the plans that he recently outlined at the AGM. And as a result, we are about eight weeks behind, but are now fully prepared (physically and financially) to commence A2 remediation in January, and to commence drilling of the new two wells into Unit 1B immediately thereafter.
Sure, there are missing pieces in the puzzle and various risks, but these are not the risk of discovery as it the case for newly formed exploration companies. McDaniel & Associates have formally confirmed resources (over various units, including 1B), and even the minimum, post shut-in flow rate for U1B (via A2) provides saleable quality oil (API circa 19). The upcoming remediation has one aim - to provide stabilised production flow rates similar to those witnessed pre shut-in, and the company has been perfectly clear on the methodology, risks, and objectives. Similarly, the two new wells (off Pad 2) will have similar objectives, and will benefit from the learnings of A2. A total of 7 new wells will be drilled in 2025, and the company remains committed to this, bringing total Unit 1B production levels to somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 bopd by the end of 2025 (impossible to nail down a more accurate number at this point in time, but the numbers will firm up over the next month or two with the remediation of A2 and the flow rates from the new wells). Assuming this is roughly right, that's circa A$50 million of net income to MAY per year, just off Unit 1B. Even using a 10:1 PE, that would take fair value to around 15 cents per share by the end of 2025 (before even considering future prospects, other reserves, and other interests). My personal guess is a "success" valuation around 20-25 cents per share.
So for my 10 cents worth on this: 3 cents is rather cheap. Yes, you run the risk of failure to remediate A2; but it would take a very brave (or silly) man to bet against 7 wells, and to bet against the determination of Melbana, CUPET and Sonangol. They are committed to success and, in my view, will achieve it.
Enjoy your day. Ignore the noise from the chasers, and feed off the opportunity presented to us.
Regards
Kit
(20min delay)