I recommend you listen to this podcast by Trivum, a very well respected China policy analysis firm. After predicting six months out the export bans recently placed on antimony which saw antimony prices go from USD10,000 to USD40,000 per tonne, their view is that tungsten would be next on the list for export controls. However, China may hold this in reserve as part of an intial volley in response to potential tariff negotiations from the incoming Trump Administration.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1fZYWHSrpyvymLAX2Fg2e4?si=1ba0a87f17dd420e
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