Stocks are always rife for speculation when a trading halt comes out, so I'll try not to get too off target here with wild projections til we know exactly what the contract means, but below are a few things to ponder.
Firstly, we know this announcement has to be with an Angolan tenement. Some interesting facts for you to mull over, though below is just my thoughts and figures. You need to do some of your own research
1) On average, Angola produced 1,100,000 barrels of oi a day in 2024
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2) Average cost to produce oil in Angola is $40 USD a barrel. It varies depending on the well and it's location, but this is the average
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3) Average Brent crude oil prices for 2024 ranged from just under $70 a barrel to as high as $90 USD a barrel
So, if we took the average for the year, it would make brent crude at about $75 USD a barrel. Take off production costs, and you have $35 USD a barrel which on an exchange rate of 0.65 to AUD makes it just shy of $54 AUD a barrel.
Now, let's move into the hypothetical - always risky on HC!
1,100,000 barrels a day. Let's say our tenement is half of one percent - that is 5,500 barrels a day.
5,500 x $54 AUD = $297,000 a day
$297K x 365 = $108,405,000
The $108,405,000 is profit!
Let's say my half of one percent production is too optimistic. So, let's halve the yet again - that still comes out to over $50M AUD profit! 10x multiple would give us a $500M valuation - or about $0.10 a share!
I just wanted to highlight this to put some potential figures behind things. We still need to know exactly what we have, but regardless, this is some damn, exciting news.
Also, as eluded by others, if this now gives us a foot in the door, then who's to say there are not other tenements ROG is actively going after. If you look at the above and what it could mean to the SP, then what would happen if we got a few more tenement contracts through 2025 or 2026.
This is a long term hold for me. It now has a very solid base and the potential is now huge. Will it be a "pump" on the SP? I don't know, but I am not looking for pumps. I am looking for growth and as long as ROG can show growth, the SP will take care of itself.
It's going to be few sleepless nights until we get the details of this deal and we can then go over it more thoroughly to see what sort of figures we are actually talking about, but regardless of this, I can't think of a better way to bring in the New Year - Happy 2025 everyone.
(20min delay)