Vanilla XJO Thread, page-27

Weekly Wrap, week ended 3/1/25

A short week this week, four days of trading with New Year's Day a holiday.

XJO down this week, just -0.14%.

This week was a bit of a nothing week. The week started softly, but buying on Thursday and Friday took the chart back almost to par.

The chart remains bearish with the weekly candle remaining under the 10-Week MA and all four indicators in bearish conditions.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO is on the verge of switching from consolidation to up-trend. It is sitting at a little S/R zone. SMI, which tends to be a leading indicator, is bullish. MACD Histogram is just below its zero line, and RSI at 48.37 is just below its mid-line. DMI is closing together, but not quite at a x-over point.

Given events in America overnight, where major indicator were up strongly, our market could swing to a bullish stance - higher highs and higher lows.

XJO Monthly Chart.

December XJO was down -3.28% ended with a sigh of despair for the Santa Rally bettors.

Sector Performance this week.

The week has been dominated by the performance of Energy, up +4.47%. The other side of the coin has been Property -1.35%. Gold Miners (XGD), which is not a sector but an industry group within Materials, was up 0.97%.

Apart from those, other sectors were relatively benign although six out of eleven were negative. Finsncials (XXJ) was down -0.42%, which was the major impact on the XJO, down just -0.14%.

New Highs and New Lows.

The 10-Day MA of New Highs remains above the 10-Day MA of New Lows. That keeps the long-term trend in bullish territory.

There was a small x-0ver in late December so it appears that the long-term trend has dodged a bullet, but only just.

Both of the 10-Day MAs are both headed to the downside, so we only need to see a few negative days with New Lows on the increase, and we will see a significant x-over of the two 10-Day MAs.

On the other hand (as the famously indecisive economist said) if we get a few positive days and see a few positive days then the gap between 10-Day New Highs and 10-Day New Lows will widen - and the bull trend will be safe.

Conclusion.

The Australian market had a relatively neutral week, but showed some life on Thursday and Friday. Further upside should set up a new up-trend.

December was a dud for the Santa Rally fans, -3.28%

If January is also negative, we could be looking at a bear market. January is generally a seasonally positive result, but, as we've seen in December, seasonality is no guarantee of performance.

Continue to watch what happens in the charts.

Take care.
RB