Ann: BLG Engages Specialist Foundry Services Prov, page-28

re: Ann: BLG Engages Specialist Foundry Servi... Lectro FYEO,

http://www.silex.com.au/

see Investor presentations.

First (Top one) note esp. pp 18,24, 27,28.

SLX doesn't seem to have any problems putting its arms around a problem and attempting to quantify it, AND telling people.

FYI from typical CPV projects:
Project 150 MW Capex 400M.
80% heliostats
20% absorber
-10% structure, waste heat management
-5% PV
-5% optics, etc

(sidebar comment - building heliostats is a better low risk and bigger busines. Sorry, I digress)

PV value = $20M/150 MW ~ $0.13M/MW capex or $0.1M/MW project cost

Australia 600MW x20% = 120 MW. BLG revenue = $12M over 5 years
India 22,000 MW x 2% = 440 MW. BLG revenue = $44M over 5 years.
(from SLX)

Best CPV $/p.a revenue for BLG = $13 M p,a. (12+44)/5
Profit Margin 35%
Profit per share = 2 cents. (I use this number later)

Silex reports 50 MW flat plate manufacturing capacity. BLG advises:
"While CPV is currently a tiny proportion of the market representing only 10MW in 2008, it?s current growth rate is 500% expected to reach 50MW by 2009 (Solfocus / GTM Research)."

Jumpstart assumes this loose comment refers to the Australian market.

BluGlass expects to deliver a
30% total cost of ownership
advantage or saving of US
$130.76 per 4? wafer

Implied cost $32500/m2 sale price. Profit $10,000/m2
===========================
Now working backwards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mildura_Solar_Concentrator_Power_Station
35 kW CS500 dish has a PV area of 0.23m? (implies 150 suns -JS comment)
BLG cost for 1 MW = 6.6*$32,5k =$0.21k/MW @150 suns

BLG assumes 50MW local market therefore revenue total over a few years is : $10M. ta-da!! (50*0.21)

30% profit = $3m, say Profit =$1M p.a over three years.
===========================

These two approaches are close enough. BLG could be 300 suns rather than 150, then they match, and the BLG website said "many hundred times". So...

Another approach:

215M shares. Someone wants $1/sh. assume 2% divvies (2 cents per sh) because its sexy high growth capital appreciation potential, means divvies $4M p.a. A generous P/E of 20, and E is 30% of Revenue means revenue must be about $35m p.a
($215M/20/30%)
$10M profit $35*30%), whereby $4M goes to divvies, $6M retained. Thats reasonable.

BLG needs to sell 1000m2 of PV p.a. ($35M/$32.5k).
Equivalent to generaton @300 suns of 300MW of power stations worth, per year.

Now go back and look at Australia and India. Chew though Australia in two years. India has a deadline of 2022, so say 7 years BLG would need 2100MW or average 10% of Indian market over that time to have a $1 sp. Starting near zero means ramping up to 20% of Indian market or 600MW p.a. production capacity at the end. (2000 m2 of PV p.a, or 250,000 4inch wafers p.a in the final year)

Does this seem reasonable or achievable?

Now I did this with limited resources from home while watching the Brissy flood news, how come BLG can't?

I'll leave you guys to fiddle with the numbers. Good luck.