Ann: Pause in Trading, page-100

As we sit with bated breath awaiting the outcome of the latest TH I have been reflecting.

In a recent post I used and example of when MSB did a capital raise soon after a positive announcement (Grunenthal relationship).

In that raise it was at 3.15% discount to the 10-day VWAP price.

Using that example and basing it on today’s numbers resulted in a potential Cap Raise price of $2.898.

I think like many LTS I’m probably a bit gun shy (dare I say, a bit like Oliver Twist, asking for “more please Sir”) and as a result somewhat conditioned to expect a discount similar to the above.

However, we are in a far stronger position than 2019.

We actually have very good reasons to be confident, based on the following:

• The company has been significantly de-risked
• Has the first approval by the FDA in what is a paradigm shift in medicine
• A plethora of patents (providing a significant moat)
• A number of blockbuster products in the pipeline (as frequently discussed here)

I know @ddwn has a long list of the opportunities, imminent and otherwise so I do not want to replicate his great list, other than to state the obvious that we can negotiate from a position of strength.

Ie we could look for a premium rather than a discount.

How many large corps can see the potential and wish to have a slice of the pie, how long would it take gain a reasonable stake with bots and the risk of a good news event dropping and causing a significant SP rise?

Finally, for fun I thought that I would look at the current incentives (based upon the published shareholdings) for our BoD to get the very best deal for every shareholder.

I looked at the number of shares each director held as of the 29th of Aug 2024, & what that equated to in value (AUD) as of last price.

I also looked at the impact /value of a 1 cent change to each director based upon their shareholding (I know there are some on HC who would be similarly impacted). The figs come from the FY24 Financial Report.

Name

Balance at the start of the year

Acquisitions/ (Disposals) during the year

Balance at the end of the FY24

Balance as 29/8/2024

Est Share Holding Value @ last closing price $2.81

Impact change 1c

Silviu Itescu

68,958,928

10,000,000

78,958,928

83,590,666

$ 234,889,771.46

$ 835,906.66

Eric Rose

-

411,620

411,620

3,433,719

$ 9,648,750.39

$ 34,337.19

Jane Bell

247,618

295,823

543,441

1,003,504

$ 2,819,846.24

$ 10,035.04

William Burns

85,000

21,250

106,250

735,901

$ 2,067,881.81

$ 7,359.01

Philip Facchina

273,225

-150,005

123,220

681,958

$ 1,916,301.98

$ 6,819.58

Philip Krause

100,000

187,500

287,500

745,884

$ 2,095,934.04

$ 7,458.84

Michael Spooner

1,091,335

1,091,335

1,169,000

$ 3,284,890.00

$ 11,690.00

Joseph Swedish

459,420

459,420

1,786,497

$ 5,020,056.57

$ 17,864.97