In the absence of any new insights from PCL, I, like most others on this forum, do our own research to better-understand what PEL-87 has to offer based on reliable public information we can source.
Below are some of my thoughts on Orange Basin reservoirquality, and in particular possibly why Mopane appears to have better reservoir qualitythan Shells discoveries and perhaps even TotalEnergies Venus
et.al. discoveries, although very little subsurface information has been provided by TotalEnergies. Yes, GALP are trying to sell a chuck of Mopane and are naturally showcasing the best that MOPANE has to offer. The reservoir quality insights announced by GALP at Mopane can potentially help de-risk reservoir quality on PEL-87's play-type.
GALP, TOTALENERGIES public announcements on reservoir quality.
- MOPANE – Reservoir lateral connectivity: Mopane-2Xshowed the AVO-1 anomaly was in the same pressure regime as in the Mopane-1Xdiscovery well, 8 km to the east, confirming a lateral extension.
- MOPANE – The Mopane-1X well discovered, in January, significant oil columnscontaining light oil in high-quality reservoir sands at two different levels:AVO-1 and AVO-2. The Mopane-2X discovery encountered significantlight oil columns in high-quality reservoir sands across exploration andappraisal targets; AVO-3, AVO-1 and a deeper target.
- MOPANE – The reservoirs’ logs confirm good porosities, high pressures and high permeabilities in largehydrocarbon column.
- MOPANE– Reservoir deliverability 14,000+ Boe/d constrained.
- VENUS – Albian basin floor fan. "There are a lotof hydrocarbons, there are some sweet spots (suggests good reservoir quality)in terms of productivity [and] permeability. There are some areas which haveless, good characteristics (suggests poorer reservoir quality)," Pouyannesaid. "I repeat that on our side we see a first development clearly in ourhands”.
- VENUS – Pouyanne said the company had"a very good drill stem test on one of the Venus wells" (suggests good reservoir deliverability), "while thelocation of the second was imperfect" (suggests poorer reservoir deliverability).
RESERVOIR QUALITY ENHANCEMENT - Why does MOPANE appear to have better-quality reservoirs discovered to date an Shell and possibly Venus?
- Bottom current sediment reworking between the Cretaceous Namibia continental shelf and the Marginal High / Outer Shelf may provide a process/mechanism (MOPANE / VENUS environments of deposition
- Primarily the fundamental role of bottom currents is redistributing sediments during and after deposition.
- Bottomcurrents flow along slope, subparallel to bathymetric contours on a semi-permanent basis, while gravity flows (turbidites forming basin floor sand e.g. Venus) are rapid, sediment-ladenflows moving downslope.
- Bottom currents between the Cretaceous Namibia continental shelf and the Marginal High / Outer Shelf, in well-sorted sandstone with good porosity and permeability due to sediment reworking andwinnowing out of mud/clays. Theu can have a regional influence.
- Sedimentredistribution by bottom currents, would form intercalations of fine-tocoarse-grained sediments and transitional facies.
IMPLICATIONS FOR SATURN- WhilstSaturn has Aptian turbidite lobes (gravity flows downslope) as a play-type, andpotential sub-basin floor fans, the reworking of these sediments during andafter deposition by bottom current processes active between the Cretaceous Namibia continental shelf and the Marginal High / Outer High, through winnowing out thefiner-grained material (e.g. mud, clays), may enhance reservoir quality.
- Thismay explain, atthis point in time, why Mopane appears to have better reservoir quality than what has been published for Venus (that may change if TotalEnergies provide more insight). Apart from “sound bites” provided by Pouyanne, we have limited understanding of the reservoir quality at Venus.
- OtherSaturn play-type (Albian channels, Cenomanian channels, Cenomanian erosionalremnants, mid-Aptian/Barremian channel-levee complexes, may also benefit fromenhanced reservoir quality through bottom current reworking.
Below are some diagrams which I hope help explain my thinking.
Scheme of ocean circulation in the Early Cretaceous South Atlantic and Southern Ocean generated by the Kiel Climate Model. Boundary conditions represent a Late Aptian to Early Albian time slice. The location of the Walvis Ridge (WR) in respect to the model geology is indicated by the dashed black line. Note location of PEL blocks and south to north ocean currents.
Unfortunately, like some others have mentioned, I do not expect much substance in the next quarterly. I hold quiet a few Aug. 2025 options, so I would like to see a share price stimulus well-before then.
OldGeo
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