guys, no offense here in this post. okay? perma-bears are far more clued up on ta than i am, however, i have been in ta for some time and offer the following observations.
here's my take:
oct 07 and we're looking down a cliff. sometime later, the queen asked, "but who could have known this would have happened?" plenty put their hands up. bobby prechter was one.
mar 09 and the world was grim. bobby said to cover shorts lest the world find itself unable to pay! and now here's the kicker...
for the subsequent months and now YEARS, he and every other perma-bear ("oh, but bobby ain't no perma-bear"...yeah, right) has said this is it. cue the following:
early jun 09. world about to end. market falls off, but lo and behold, recovers beginning in july.
on every successive peak until jan 10, the market is about to fail. it didn't, but come jan 10 we fell off into feb 10.
feb 10, and the news is the world is about to end once more, financially at least. by the end of that month, new highs all the way to early-mid april when, of course, the world was about to end yet again.
financially, of course!
what we had now was not a zigzag correction, but a complex triple zigzag, one of the most uncommon of corrections but a clear case, shut the door, we're now completely DONE situ where the world is...you got it, about to end once more.
to be fair, it began to look pretty scary by late april.
but a funny thing happened. by early june 10 the market looked off, but it had in fact bottomed. the world was not ending. in fact, the markets took off in all directions, particularly, and i love this, commodities.
i buy commodities not because i'm smart but because i believe in growth, not decay, progress, not regress, and evidence, not rubbing a crystal ball.
at any rate, it was tough going clearing the 11,200 mark on the dow but it happened. qe2 was embraced and the world was well again.
we are now in the throes of being told that "no, it is about to end", and this time we really mean it. to be sure, this is and can be scary stuff. world ending forecasts should be reviewed with care, as there are fair dinkum people involved.
but as the market moved up, at every peak we were told "tis over, folks. pack up your kit and move to the hills" preferably with a gun and tinned food.
to throw insult on injury, i'm reliably informed we're not in a bull market but the "fifth of the fifth of the" whatever, you've completely shot your theories in the foot, leg, torso, throat and face.
sorry to be blunt and, like i said, no offense meant to the bears but the evidence is clear. this is a bull.
question is should you get aboard, or add to your shorts?
position is buy commodities, particularly food stocks.
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