In isolation, yes. We don't really know how many group(s) are shorting, and how long they have been adding to their positions to estimate what their actual average sell price is. If we work on the assumption that the same group(s) have been shorting this stock since the Culper report, my estimate is that they would need to cover out their positions below $16 to return a profit.
In the middle of November, the stock nearly reached $17 before it got slammed back down. My estimate for the rolling short average was around that figure at that time. There's no scientific method to this due to the lack of data, I was using VWAP and the net change to get an idea of this figure (per day) and then averaging it all out.
I also really don't know what the overall impact shorting is to the overall picture. I think it is mainly the poor sentiment and momentum affecting things and shorts just capitalise on that.
NEU Price at posting:
$13.20 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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