YEs most of this is true my comments in blue.
-Lynas will be submitting a further EIA which should, we hope, result in the removal of annual lanthanum processing limits. Of course we know these limits
are purely politically imposed, nothing to do with the environment. So hopefully a fully unrestricted and longer duration license on renewal next year.
These Lanthanide restriction were put in place when NC was CEO. Why are they just now going to worry about them. ?Hint they expected KAL to be done much earlier. Assuming they fix KAL this is not longer a problem so why worry about it now.
-Lynas has identified a solution to the US wastewater permitting issues and currently working with DOD to move forward on this. Great news. According to the 2019 % year plan page 28 US was suppose to be done late fall 2022 Unless I missed something the last date I heard was late Callender 2025 for this to be done do you think it will be done by late 2026? Late 2027?
-Heavy rare earth Dy and Tb outside production plans on track at LAMP and the hardware is in place. Yes and We were suppose to see full NEXT in 2019 still have only achieved it in one Q and Q2 2025 was well below even name plate. Yes there were unexpected problems again. I will believe it when I see a couple of projects completed when they say. Or at least timely updates to progress not last minute stories about problems.
-Capex for the Mt Weld expansion on budget and everything going to plan. AL always say on plan and on budget. It never is look at page 1 of 2019 plan, all projects combined were suppose to be $500M they have now spent AUD 1.63B. Cash is down to $308M and that includes an over AUD 400M stock sale that they said would not happen on page one of 5 year plan.
-Continuous improvement and learning's etc. So, she says this all the time but look at past performance.
-Demand and prices showing some improvement. Yes they have for last two weeks But they need a price of between 800 RMB to 900RMB WV. They need several times what they are seeing now to have a EPS that justifies even an AUD 8.00 price. Look at the long term and short term charts below there has not been a rise that has held since 2021. Do you really take satisfaction in this 3 week rise. If I could find any indication that perm magnets demand was increasing I would say OK this might be it. Other than WEE's billion robots in 2025 I see nothing that would drive a big rise in Demand that would fill the 50 New SX lines China has built in the last few years.
-Chinese quotas should see some restraint and rare earth imports might be included in the quotas. This would be a positive because imports from Myanmar etc. are in addition to the quotas, pushing up supply. Might but no indication so far just wishful thinking on both of your parts. also all quotas are on output not input so how Myanmar imports effect anything I don't know, could you explain to me?
Let's hope we finally see some positives and 2025 is the year Lynas rewards its shareholders. Hope is eternal when do we see some real improvements
Yes the future is more important than the past I totally agree but remember what we have been told in the last couple of years and what has actually happened. Then decide on how much faith you should have in what is said.
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