Here's why I think this is a poor quarterly performance.
The order intake is down by $3.8M and the board's excuse was "Last Q2 we had a big order but not this year". Not a very good excuse for a company projected to grow its revenue above $40M. It's acceptable not getting big orders every quarter due to the lumpy nature of the business model. It is what it is. But it's not okay to give unrealistic projection. It also doesn't look good especially after the CEO talked so much about restructuring sales team and good quality sales pipelines.
The poor order intake in H1 FY25 will lead limited growth and small backlog in FY26. What's gonna happen is AVA will achieve $35M in revenue by the end of FY, brag about it on AGM and ignore the fact that they've missed the projection for 4 years in a row, hand out $700k cash as dividend, and eventually drop to $30-32M in FY26. Unless the company achieves a magical H2 this year with Telstra order and stuff, which is unlikely since they've taken off the word "substantially" in the Q2 update so the H2 revenue is probably going to be $17.5-18M.
In my opinion, Mal has been doing a generally good job so far, but not as good as he pictured. Achieving $35M revenue in FY25 is inline with my personal projection, but I really don't want to see it fall back to the $30M level. Let's see what Mal says in H2 presentation.
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