monday trading, page-103

JD, following on your comments about being a bear or a bull.

I am guilty of being bearish most of the time. Instead of taking out long positions in a rising market I have been waiting for short entries.

I often ask myself - why don't you just trade price as Rob often suggests? The answer is that I have little confidence in the equity markets as I feel that much of this rally is as a result of government intervention only (QE etc).

Looking back over the last couple of years my way of thinking has clearly been more wrong than right - based on price.... which is almost everything.

All of this waiting to short and the market has yet to collapse as I have been predicting. Of course I can keep making the same old short calls and one day I will be very right, the question being will I be liquid and set short at the right time? Or will I keep getting it wrong and give up before the real fall?

Many of the XJO thread posters (exclude Hedgie and a couple of others) don't see the market collapsing. I truly respect Voltaire's opinion as most others do but I also agree that his sentiment is fast changing so it is hard to know what he truly thinks. I feel deep down that he is a bear but his recent comments suggest that he expects higher prices here.

Gann made the comment - when clouds gather you know that it is going to rain and for that reason you seek shelter.

When I see the put/call ratio, VIX and SPX bullish percentage at these extreme levels (like they were in April 2010 - even more extreme now) I feel the clouds have well and truly gathered.