Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 4C, page-148

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Merchant2000

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05/02/25

12:22

Post #: 77714139
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Originally posted by chuk: ↑

"Still believe that massive dilution will still be ahead "

Based on what? I could just as easily say there will be minimal further dilution but both are meaningless statements without any data to back them up.
Only someone wanting to down ramp and create uncertainty uses a term like "massive" dilution without quantifying.

The company raised $6mill cash itself, aside from the SWF cash.
That is enough for around 6 months of head office costs.
So the company now probably has around 4-5 months to settle the IDC precondition to free up both loans. If it does that, i.e. it becomes fully funded on capex and makes solid progress on construction, I'm sure most here would expect a share price above 10c.
So what about working capital for overheads beyond 4-5 months? Should we expect "massive dilution"?
There are 12mill 10c options that expire on the 30th of April 2025 and another 20mill 10c options that expire 1st of July 2025.
I expect by then the sp will be at 10c or above and those options will be exercised. That's effectively a cr at 10c to raise $3.2mill.
That covers a further 3 months of corporate overheads taking the company out to around September by which time construction might be completed or at least near completion and any further cr could be at a sp well over 10c for perhaps another 5% dilution to raise a further $5mill to see them through to cash flows.
The alternatives are;

The company can't find buyers and doesn't get its loans. That seems very unlikely given the very strong need for local, low cost phosphate in Angola and the SWF seems to agree by allowing its cash to be spent prior to the loan precondition being met, or

The company renegotiates one of its loans to cover working capital as well as capex. The loans currently cover more than is needed for capex so this is a possibility and might remove the need for any further cr leaving just the expected option conversion which the market will already be expecting and allowing for in its dilution assumptions..

Edit - it seems I hit the sell sentiment button before "post". My sentiment remains at buy.

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There are 12mill 10c options that expire on the 30th of April 2025 and another 20mill 10c options that expire 1st of July 2025.
I expect by then the sp will be at 10c or above and those options will be exercised. That's effectively a cr at 10c to raise $3.2mill.

Absolute dreaming of above imo

You have got 100% wrong in every call for 2 years

Newbies beware of large holders and check their HC accuracy via archives

MNB Price at posting: 4.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 4C, page-148

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Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 4C, page-148

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