PRU 3.41% $2.73 perseus mining limited

a$4.40 target price by macquarie, page-12

  1. 331 Posts.

    Page one From Macquarie Report.

    "Emerging gold producer. Perseus has two principal assets located in West
    Africa ? the Central Ashanti Gold Project (?CAGP‟) in Ghana and the Tengrela
    Gold Project (?TGP‟) in C?te d‟Ivoire. With combined total resources of
    7.9moz, including reserves of 3.9moz, we anticipate average production of
    261koz pa over a 15 year mine life at CAGP from 1Q12 and 109koz pa over
    10 years at TGP from 1Q13.

    Filling the void in mid-tier gold space. The combined production profile at
    CAGP and TGP, along with further resource/reserve upgrades, should set
    Perseus in motion to become a +400koz pa gold producer from FY13, filling
    the void in the mid-tier gold space following the Newcrest/Lihir merger.

    "Valuation. Applying DCF methodology, we derive a valuation of A$3.18ps or
    A$1,344m. Our valuation is driven by CAGP, which accounts for ~82% of
    value. If we assume exploration success to extend mine lives at both mines to
    2030 (possible 12?18 month scenario), our valuation would theoretically
    increase to +A$5.00ps, +70% upside. We note valuation risk associated with
    successful and timely ramp up of both projects and in obtaining the relevant
    licences and permits, hedging profitability, political stability and
    exploration/realisation."

    Fully funded production. Capex to bring Perseus‟ assets to production is
    estimated at ~US$120m in FY11 for CAGP and US$115m over FY12 and
    FY13 for TGP. Both projects are fully funded by cash on hand and full draw
    down of a US$85m project facility. We anticipate any further substantial
    capital requirements may come from equity funding.
    Earnings and target price revision

    Initiation of coverage.
    Price catalyst

    12-month price target: A$4.40 based on a 1.4x DCF multiple methodology.

    Catalyst: Significant reserve/resource upgrade at TGP.

    Action and recommendation: We like Perseus‟ exposure to the largely undeveloped but highly prospective
    West African region. Its principal asset, CAGP, is located in Ghana, an
    established mining province with relatively low political risk. We are also
    confident about Perseus‟ organic growth potential, with its two projects
    providing a clear path to +400koz pa production.

    Given its clear path to growth, we believe Perseus is favourably positioned to
    participate in corporate activity."
 
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