Page one From Macquarie Report.
"Emerging gold producer. Perseus has two principal assets located in West
Africa ? the Central Ashanti Gold Project (?CAGP‟) in Ghana and the Tengrela
Gold Project (?TGP‟) in C?te d‟Ivoire. With combined total resources of
7.9moz, including reserves of 3.9moz, we anticipate average production of
261koz pa over a 15 year mine life at CAGP from 1Q12 and 109koz pa over
10 years at TGP from 1Q13.
Filling the void in mid-tier gold space. The combined production profile at
CAGP and TGP, along with further resource/reserve upgrades, should set
Perseus in motion to become a +400koz pa gold producer from FY13, filling
the void in the mid-tier gold space following the Newcrest/Lihir merger.
"Valuation. Applying DCF methodology, we derive a valuation of A$3.18ps or
A$1,344m. Our valuation is driven by CAGP, which accounts for ~82% of
value. If we assume exploration success to extend mine lives at both mines to
2030 (possible 12?18 month scenario), our valuation would theoretically
increase to +A$5.00ps, +70% upside. We note valuation risk associated with
successful and timely ramp up of both projects and in obtaining the relevant
licences and permits, hedging profitability, political stability and
exploration/realisation."
Fully funded production. Capex to bring Perseus‟ assets to production is
estimated at ~US$120m in FY11 for CAGP and US$115m over FY12 and
FY13 for TGP. Both projects are fully funded by cash on hand and full draw
down of a US$85m project facility. We anticipate any further substantial
capital requirements may come from equity funding.
Earnings and target price revision
Initiation of coverage.
Price catalyst
12-month price target: A$4.40 based on a 1.4x DCF multiple methodology.
Catalyst: Significant reserve/resource upgrade at TGP.
Action and recommendation: We like Perseus‟ exposure to the largely undeveloped but highly prospective
West African region. Its principal asset, CAGP, is located in Ghana, an
established mining province with relatively low political risk. We are also
confident about Perseus‟ organic growth potential, with its two projects
providing a clear path to +400koz pa production.
Given its clear path to growth, we believe Perseus is favourably positioned to
participate in corporate activity."
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