hree v lree

If you dont want to get dizzy from this maze dont read on.
Yes those of you with a Sales background know that now means you must read on :)

On the 14th Dec China advised that they had increased the Export tariff on Neodymium (Nd) from 15% to 25%.
Why ?

Nd was $19.12..in 2009.
$55.51..in Q3 2010.
$94..17/1/11...a rise in 1 yr of 491%..from Q3 to 17/1..a rise of 69%.
Pretty classy.

Mt W,s concentrate 99% purity is made up of 18.5% Nd.
Currently that equates to.
185k per ton x 11,000 x $94 =$191.2 M income Q3 2011-Q3 2012.
Not a bad earner.
Molycorp,s Nd is less 120k per ton (12% grade).

Nd however only finished 5 th on the honor board of Price rises.

No 1 spot Samarium (Sm)...1 yr...up ..1797%..from last Qtr 424 % (($3.40-$61.10).
LYC,s Mt W concentrate is 2.3%..2.8% is regarded as extreme high....Duncan has a 2.87 % grade.
MCP has a .8 % grade.
Mind jogger.
Sm is second only to Nd in the powerfull magnets arena..advantage is that at extreme temp. 700 degrees and above Sm retains its power..Nd doesnt.
So price wise Sm is the hottest in demand.
To LYC this is worth about $15.5m P A.
You can see from its low concentrate level its bordering on scarcity as the HREE,s.
The 3 HREE,s listed by LYC by concentrate
Europium (Eu) .443%......Dyprosium (Dy).124% ...Terbium (Tb).068%.
MCP shows only .12 Eu..Zero Dy and Tb.
MCP are 82.8% La+Ce,94.5 % La+Ce+Nd 98.7% La+Ce+Nd+Pr..4 of the lightest and lowest value REE,S.
They do have more La conc.33.2...LYC..25.5%
Ce..49.1..LYC..46.7...but thats it.
With LYC supplying only 23k X 11,000=253,000k=253T for a year and then MCP the year after with .8 grade from 22,000T another 130T odd..by which time LYC will sell just over 500T (ramped up to 22,000T).
In context the Sojitz deal is for 8000 odd T ,world demand exspected to be ..who knows..lets settle with 200,000 T 253 or 500 t for one element is hardly market flooding.
The scarcity factor..2.3%,.8 %..we dont know China,s grades,I can see Sm getting closer to HREE prices...upwards of $200.

No2 spot goes to Cerium (Ce)..up 1729%....291% Q3-17/1.($3.88-$67.10)
Our highest grade..46.7%..will earn about $344.1 M
Glass polishing powders,phosphors for fluros..(how many light bulbs in the world)fuel additive,reduces CO emission.
Obviously heavily in demand.
At its current increase one can conservatively add another 50% rise in 12 mths..$130-$150

No3 spot Lanthanum 9 (La)...1639%....338%.($4.88-$80)
We have plenty...25.5%..income $224.4M.
Think Toyota Prius...10-15k per hybrid car,Fibre optical,carbon lighting,Camera/telescope lenses,grain growth addative,added to steel makes them more malleable,ductile,pool products..removes phosphates that feed algae,molecular biology,etc.
Kicked on in last QTR with 338% rise..again allow another 50% rise $120-$150

No4 spot Praseodymium (Pr)...up 507%....68%.($18.03-$91.5)
MCP..4.34...LYC..5.3%.
Income..$53.3M.
Very much in the magnetic field.
Allowing a 10% rise..$100-$110

No 5 NEODYMIUM..China export tariff increase ???
Up..491%......69 % ($19.12-$94)
Income..$191.2 M
Strongest permanent magnet known....up to 700 degrees C.
Hybrid cars,Windturbines,computer hard disks,microphones,loudspeakers,....anything you want to make tiny.
China going green..wind turbines...each need about 4000k Nd..thus the tariff.
This could be anything..the two biggest guzzlers..hybrid cars/wind turbines need it.Im presuming lower price at present as both guzzler industries still at infant stage.
Two years from now around $200.

All the hoopla about LREE and HREE doesnt add up when we compare the rises.
Ie the demand for HREE isnt really reflected.
Dyprosium LYC .124....MCP Zero.
Up 294%.....21%...($115.67-$340.00)
Income..$4.9M.
In the magnetic arena,Nuclear reactors,data storage,etc.
Europium...up..23%.....8% ($492.92-$635)
LYC .44 ...MCP .12%
Income..$30.7M.
Red phosphors for Tv,fluros,etc.

Terbium (Tb)...up 74%.....6% ($361.67-630)
LYC .068....MCP zero.
Income $6.9m.
Sonar,sensors,etc.

Gadolinium,Holmium,Erbium,Yytrium were clustered togather but on the left over calculation basis worth about $51m income.

LREE,s rises ballistic...HREE,S in comparison..pretty ordinary.
Is the demand not there for HREE,s ? or is it that the average grade found anywhere is so low..4 tons of concentrate produces 1 ton of oxides which in turn produces .68 of a kilo of Terbium.1.24 K Dy 4.4 k Eu or are we being fed BS.

Summary.LREE,s look terrific price wise,above figures indicate that the basket price could easily go to $150 + with China reducing..noone online yet.
HREE prices are the dark horse..price increases dropped away in last QTR..when demand gets critical HREE will take off.Thats why NTU and Malawi are in the picture.

All the figures were taken from the LYC web page..Mt Weld prices...and as its stated there..when the different elements are blended with different stuff the price increases.