Hi primaus,
thx for your work!
Just two points I‘d add:
First, I think OPT‘s guidance of burning US$40M per quarter could prove too conservative. In my view, it does not sufficiently take into account the accelerating disenrollment from the two P3 trials (see chart below). Any build-up of additional spending requirements (sales force, DME trial) should lag the savings from SHORE and COAST approaching their 2y end, I think. Instead, CY2025 should see a continuous decline in cash burn towards USD30M by Q4 CY2025, eventually even lower.
Second, your assumption of BLA submission occurring in 2Q CY2026 only seems very, very cautious to me: Even when working with Apr 2026, it would imply roughly 11 months from full data for COAST in May 2025 (after topline date in Apr 2025) and roughly 8 months from full data for SHORe in Aug 2025 (after topline data in Jul 2025). A very, very long time.
For comparison, it took ROG 3 months from presenting full data for Vabysmo til filing completion. While OPT might be a significantly less experienced company, I think the buffer you build into your model is too generous.
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