I very much agree with your earlier quote:
“I can see a $300M AUD CR in CY25 Q2 (probably June) after COAST. I expect CR at around $2.50 assuming COAST top line of 4-5+ letters. This will add additional 120M shares.“
The need for refinancing being done after COAST read-out is obvious. With the funds from OPTOA coming in too late and being too little anyway.
+/-120M in additional shares seems fair to me.
Same with an assumed issuance price of AU$2.50 which should easily come along with the stock having shot up to AU$3.00 after read-out. Which in turn should be achieved rather quickly (very quickly?) if readout is +4-5 letters.
With regards to any OPTOC, I think they would probably have a higher strike written on them:
OPTOA‘s 80ct strike came with a CR at 46ct.
OPTOB‘s $1.00 strike came with a CR at 40ct.
So a CR at an assumed $2.50 should rather see a strike price on any OPTOC tranche in the $4.00+, I’d say.
But hey, I have no cristal ball. And I am just spending my time waiting for the final read-out we all are eagerly waiting for.
Fingers crossed to all of us for April.
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