gnc anticipated receivals, page-2

GNCs network now received 13M tonnes. More to come ex farm, southern NSW & Vic still stripping.

My pluck at a few numbers for 2011.

Recievals (winter & summer): 15M tonnes.
Port throughput: 4-5MT grain.
Trading: 3-4MT.
Malt: 1 MT.

NPAT: $120
Divi: 50c

Assumptions:
Trading: 3-4MT
GNC have previously stated that: 1) they trade 25% of recievals; 2) account for 35% of bulk export from eastern states. + international demand for feed wheat.
Port throughput: 4-5MT grain.
1MT moved already (3 months). Shipping stem has 6.2MT booked for the remaining 9 months. Although, rail access and elevator capacity reduced at several ports.
Malt: Unchanged from last year: More production online, offsetting flat earnings.

Unknowns:
AUD: re. China; resurgent USD.
Malt business: +/- 5% currency fluctuation = approx AUD $5M EBITDA / PA
Production in the ukraine/Russia (feed wheat) & US (corn, red wheat).

Looking forward, 2011 has promise for another big year with good moisture profiles backed by solid fundamentals.
Cheers,
MS