Their are three camps when it comes to DMR decision.
1- The faithful who beleive 100% PL and think we cant lose at DMR level. 2- The unsure. Not sure who to beleive or how to interpret what info is out their. 50-50 chance 3- The ones that think Genorah will lose.
Then their are probably a few in between that think 90% chance of winning, etc.
Personally I have interpreted some of the fact in a way that I beleive Genorah will lose DMR decision. And I may be wrong. I certainly have nothing to gain by sp falling and am not wishing it to go down.
That is the negative side of my argument.
But I have always said that IF NKP lost at DMR level, then I beleive an appeal is a certainty(obviously) and the appeal would be centred on who is the meaningful community. Genorah, with their Beng and RP would win on appeal IMO. POSSITIVE.
Until DMR make a decision, both parties have leverage to form a compromise. That would also be positive.
Considering an appeal must be lodged with 180days and would be heard promptly, you would anticipate everything being resolved in NKP favour in short-medium term.
Everyone agrees their is uncertainty. Everyone agrees uncertainty equates to increased risk. Increased risk equated to bigger discount, which in turn lowers the sp.
Current sentiment needs to be SELL or NONE imo.
Anyone that says BUY at 45c with this increased risk is gambling big time.
As for Anglo, NKP need a JV partner. Anglo want in on 5 farms. The two parties had an agreement to possibly form a JV. That agreement seems to have stalled.
But in essence NKP want someone with deep pockets, and they want in. Comon sense will prevail and the two will join forces.
Within 3months I tip all positives. BFS, JV, ownership etc.
NKP Price at posting:
45.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
