Last 2-3 months I was expecting (maybe blindly hoping) the dividend would be US$0.70-72, however recently the upcoming dividend estimates have been more in the range of US$0.46-0.57. So DPS of 50 cents US would seem likely now. Currently the USD v AUD conversion is @1.57 equating to dividend of AUD$0.785.
Another matter of concern is the widely held belief the Board of the RBA will lower interest rates tomorrow, and should that occur, it will likely result in the value of the AUD$ rising and the USD v AUD conversion rate dropping. It wouldn't greatly surprise to see the conversion rate fall below $1.50 and if the declared dividend is USD$0.50 that would equate to AUS DPS of AUD$0.75.
A dividend of 75c AUS @ current sp $40.80 equates to return of 1.838% franking notwithstanding. Hoping this is not the case, but should this scenario play out tomorrow and the coming week, we would have to anticipate a substantial drop in the sp, even before ex-dividend date.
Holding for the long term and expecting good dividends in years to come, thus sentiment of Hold. However sp movement is determined by buying and selling in the here and now, subsequently cannot see buyers buying in for a less than 2% return at the present time.
(20min delay)