Somewhat of a relief rally today after a poor start to the day. Not entirely sure what to make of it but in all likelihood the markets overreacted yesterday and some of the fundies who have been loyal to Min-Res and Chris have perhaps started to gain ground.
I would expect to see a change in substantial holdings notice from L1Capital as well in coming days. They are not the type that will get scared - this is right in their wheel house.
- Mitsui writing a $8B check for Rhodes Ridge will surely have MinRes board think about recycling some of the capital invested in Onslow once the road is resurfaced. POSCO will most definitely be interested in doubling their stake from 10.3% to ~20%? (One would think). Once in steady state (35mtpa) with the potential to expand the project to 50MTPA - this asset could easily be valued at $10B++ with 10% fetching a nice $1B for MinRes.
- I will be surprised if we don't see the monetization of carry loan prior to end of march quarter. Its a given now - they will take a hair cut and get it done. Settle for $700M?
- Chris will put his foot down and ensure the team wrap up whatever needs to be done to drill out the assets that are subject of contingent payment to fast track the $200-$300M?
- Do a deal with Gang Feng to roll Bald hill into the Mt Marion JV - 200M for a 50% share? FIRB should be fine with this minor tweak
- Do more 49% infra style deals with MSIP - thinking port infrastructure, airlines, another 25% of haul road (after fixing it)?
- Lighten up on some of the yellow gear like remaining 50% of Minres explorer, mining gear - sale and lease back in an option
- Use BoaWu's influence to delay the transhippers 6 and 7 to Fy27 to keep the capex low in FY26
- Chris would have no doubt thought of brining Hancock as a 19.9% stakeholder in MinRes in return of a decent capital injection and see though valuation benefit of the business (without having to a capital raise via the dirty brokers)
All these options are very much on the table and I think we are going to see some of the levers pulled within weeks and definitely before the June 30th
MIN Price at posting:
$25.83 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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