CBA's loan portfolio from 2023 to 2024 only grew by around 16.1 bn AUD. All up loans to the private sector from Dec 2023 to Dec 2024 only grew by around 110 bn.
The risk for Australian banks putting together a syndicate loan for a leveraged buyout of 10 - 20 bn would be perceived as unacceptably high.
It's possible a player like BHP could try with a leveraged buyout, seeking funding in a UK/US corporate bond issue. The Australian private sector bond market is not deep enough.
BHP have a diversified portfolio but I'm not sure if it would add value. It could be viewed as synergistic but maybe they're not interested. They previously were looking at oil and have moved into potash.
This leaves a scrip deal on the table as the most likely and credible way for a TO to happen if WA1 grows sufficiently in enterprise value.
Say as Anglo American rejected the 60 bn offer from BHP, what if AAL offers WA1 the equivalent of (accounting for different amounts of SOI) 10 shares for every 65 WA1 shares? (Assuming they are interested).
WA1 Price at posting:
$13.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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