I see a great future, but they dont seem to be able manage their future. For example, they said they cannot sell heaps of FebriDx because they are not big pharma - and cannot invest in marketing. That begs the question; why develop a product if you dont have the finance or expertise to market it. And yet simple things like trying to get the product on the medical benefits scheme in Australia they dont have the time.
Now, that said, they seem to brilliant at lining up 'partners'. And getting the USA rebate of $42 on a $25 product was brilliant. Yet, we learn the USA Drs will not fill out a form to get $42 from the govt after they spent $25 on the product (to Lumos). So we have a right old stalemate. And I think our management are completely perplexed how to go forward. The hard yakka to get some sales, then increase a little, then a little more seems beyond them. They are great at the big event plays... big distributors, BARDA, etc. But the wee little painful, new business tasks of growing bit by bit, is well and truly beyond them.
My thinking is as soon as their monthly salaries are under threat they may decide to be more wise and pragmatic.
Now all the above is only re FebriDx.
What about services and manufacturing. Again, there appears a great future. But they dont seem to be able to manage it. We KNOW they have good IP and manufacturing skill because Hologic paid them $10 mill just to use it. $10 mill USD and our market cap now is back to $20 mill AUD. It really, really shows they are very unwise at their management of money and work tasks. Or.... they have a big roulette win up their sleeves. But, if they did, they would have been buying their own shares. They appear a lot like govts. They really dont manage anything, then from time to time when they need to report, they explain 'where we are is where we planned and all is OK'. But they did not tell us re these plans along the way.
It would be curious to see Lumos' plan to exist over the next year or two. I feel every report or interview I read and hear from them is just a vomit of info - with no direction or planning - and a lot of excuses... 'late flu season', 'no revenue because we ramped up FebriDx manufacturing', 'slow uptake of BARDA participants', 'delay in Hologic contract / money because of Hologic', 'no funds for marketing', 'too busy to fill out MBS form', 'services contracts are proprietary so we cannot tell anything'.
I still think they can be great. But we plebs will never know what is going on. It is all a big secret to us retail shareholders. But when the bottom line shows up every three months, it is another $2.5 mill cash flow loss. Is Lumos tracking how they plan. Who knows. They dont tell us what they plan. And internally, I am not sure even they know.
So, when the BARDA trial succeeds (it will), will we simply have 17 times more Drs who DONT BUY FEBRIDX BECAUSE THEY WILL NOT FILL OUT THE PAPERWORK.
And dont get me started on AMR. The govts, I fear, dont care. They care about their sound bites and narrative and their faux hand wringing and committees they can form and reports (double speak) they produce (with our tax dollars paying their big, useless arse salaries). But to actually spend some funds to buy a product that goes a long way to solving their problem. They dont do it.
Hmmm, maybe the future will not be great. Someone, somewhere needs to kick a Lumos goal. Maybe they can hire Ted Lasso.
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