Given the past history of missed timescales/overoptimistic predictions, then yes I would trust the BB posters more. I say 'trust' in the sense that they normally were pretty close to the mark on things. Besides, what would be the motivation last September to lie about how much a rig had been quoted at, which AOI turned down?
It's all water under the bridge now anyway. What matters is whether they find a rig contractor on acceptable terms this time around. And given the previous false dawns, the only thing that's going to convince me is an announcement of rig mobilisation.
Obviously this is a speculative share but my points are based on past history and experience. I'm confident we'll drill Georgia, for instance, even though we haven't had official rig mobilisation yet, because there's no reason to suggest we won't (i.e. it's safe, we've got the funding, have secured the rig, and are just awaiting the helium results before the green light is given). I'm sure that in time we'll get movement on Trinidad, and we'll drill more Texas wells too. But Puntland is different because of the past problems.
I'm clearly far from the only one who thinks this incidentally- this is why Puntland is not factored into the share price. If the wider market was confident it would take place the share price would be 50% higher than it is today. If this time round it happens then I'm sure we'll all be happy. I'm just saying, well, don't crack out the champagne just yet.
RRS Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
