I've been playing around with sales figures and patient numbers in order to forecast H2 25.
(I have used the patient numbers reported on page 3 of the report.)
Starting with patient numbers. Since FY21 the second half of the financial has shown a percentage increase in patients treated compared to H1.
In summary, the increased percentage of patients treated in H2 compared with H1 for each FY:
FY21 - 7%
FY22 - 11.2%
FY23 - 50%
FY24 - 60%
What might be the increase in this H2 over H1?
I assume the average increase of FY23 and F24, i.e., 55%.
This past H1 the number of patients treated was 14,690. Applying an increase of 55%, that projects to 22,769 patients for H2.
As has previously been observed, the revenue per patient treated has declined.
We see that most clearly in comparing H1 and H2 2024.
In that year the H1 average revenue per patient was $4,947, very similar to, but nevertheless lower than, the average for all of FY23 of $4,711.
But in H2 2024 the average dropped substantially compared to H1: it was $3,656 per patient.
However, this decline might have stabilized since it is very similar to the average for H1 25 - the one just reported on - of $3,682.
So, I assume that the revenue per patient going forward into this half will be similar to H1. Let's say $3,650.
To get a projected revenue from sales of NovoSorb for this HY, I multiply this $ average per patient by the projected number of patients (let's say 22,500).
That delivers a total for the half of $82.1m.
If close, that would mean total sales of around $135m for FY25.
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