Ann: 2025 Half-Year Results Release, page-17

whilst i think $3/share, or even higher, is eminently reasonable on the basis of fair value, i believe you/anyone involved here should be cognizant that value achievable in a takeout, when the majority owner owns 88.4%, is much more closely related to extant trading prices. the reality is RG acquired ~40% of the company at 84c simply because the stock was trading at 64c before his bid. there is always massive price-based anchoring, and inertia to extant price levels, on any corporate transaction - even when all involved are sophisticated/educated/understand fundamental value (as is now the case).

do I think RG could take this out at $1.2? obviously not. but do I think, if he acts quickly, before the stock starts flowing FCF and value creation is obvious, he could try to get this done at a typical 30-40% premium to current (ie $1.5-$1.75)? certainly it is what I would attempt to try.

this is why price pressure, in the absence of RG doing anything, is maximally important. the sooner, and closer, PGH equity gets to approximating fundamental value in the market, the more likely two things are to happen 1) RG will feel the price pressure, perhaps, and feel more likely that 'the clock is ticking' if he wants to get any kind of bargain on the residual 11.5% of the co that he obviously needs to acquire; and 2) price pressure alone will re-anchor any subsequent negotiated deal price, higher.

obviously discipline is still important, but given this reflexive dynamic, and the the fundamental disconnect between current prices and undertlying value, I am continuing to acquire shares in the market.