I agree with PLS, don't think there's any chance they'll look at Galan.
RIO on the other hand could be a different story imo. Their (Arcadium's) expansion for Fenix and Sal De Vida is 67ktpa and 45ktpa respectively (Arcadium presentation 2024). For the sheer size and magnificence of the Salar De Hombre Muerto, this annual production is quite modest, especially when compared to the Atacama which produces excess of 300ktpa right now.
Both expansions for Fenix and Sal De Vida will focus primarily on the eastern sub basin, as this is where RIO will have access to land suitable for ponds. The Salar itself is unsuitable for ponds, and as far as I can see, the eastern sub basin is somewhat constrained too, although clearly enough to accommodate both expansion plans. (please LTM holders correct this if wrong )
The western side of HM on the other hand remains largely untouched ( except for obviously Galan). Livent never needed to expand their drilling campaign beyond (basically) the center of the Salar which has hosted their primary well battery for the past 25 years. Their expansion plans resulted in an extended drilling campaign (see their 2017 and 2020 observation wells and (for the first time) deep boreholes below) however it didn't go anywhere near the positioning of the HMW tenements which is why the size and quality of our resource is so lucky, and so brilliant.
So, if RIO choose to bypass Galan they are bypassing the optionality for another 60ktpa to be tacked onto the abovementioned 112 (over 50% increase). And given 20 is already post DFS and fully permitted, and the brine profile is homogenous to Fenix and Sal De Vida and the remaining 40 looks relatively achievable, and it comes with an export permit for LiCl, the question then becomes, why would they pass on this? Especially with our current val. I get your point on major's not acquiring juniors however surely this is quite unique.
Furthermore, if they did pass, and a large company moved in, do they really want the nuisance and impost of sharing HR, infrastructure, water, pumping quotas, equipment etc?
@Egeria put this a lot better in post a little while ago.
The bottom line is, we need to be either subject to TO, asset sale or JV. Ross was right in the presentation, HMW is a complete outlier - but for all the wrong reasons. If we have zero capability of funding the project, what is the point of having this awesome large resource? The market clearly could not care less. Yes, there was a fleeting moment in 2022 when there remained a chance to prepay our way to at least 40ktpa and maybe 60ktpa in the original time frame of 2028
on our own, however those days are well and truly over, and I would say
our chance of doing this now or even beyond 2030 is ZERO. Anyone who doubts this has clearly not been a SH very long.
There is still some money hanging around though. The company that was the initial subject of this thread is evidence of this. They have recently sold a completely inferior, DLE, pre DFS, pre permitted project for ~AUD340M about 100km away. The difference being their CEO Steve Cochrane was unabashed in selling the project, which he eventually got done.
I think this is the change of tact we need to make now, and with RIO closing LTM today, the timing is right.
(20min delay)