Please post these earlier articles you mention Higs. Obviously speculating is fun; but what is even more fun will be real fundementals; driven by seismic analysis, science, forward planning, and the drill-bit. Until then, based on various valuation models I've run personally (based best-effort speculative data at best that we have), I think Euroz is still fairly spot-on (screencap for reference again below). You will find however that due to the risky nature of o&g wildcat drilling, that figures are typically conservative in nature (as such, i'd personally be using a $1bbl input as guidance - and hope to be pleasantly surprised).
To continue the thread above referencing the WDS option, and why have they not farmed-in earlier (if they are going to in the first place) - it all comes down to
risk management. The longer they wait, the more they learn, and the more de-risked their decision can be (without lifting a finger). As mentioned in on of the threads above, 'there is no benefit in wds formally farming-in earlier', the longer they wait, the better de-risked they will be (they learn more about Mopane3x which is looking like a monster, and possibly more about Rhino's Sagittarius1x drill; and even a bit more information from TotalEnergies Marula-1x probe, etc). However - just because they have not 'formally farmed-in'; does not mean that serious preparations are ongoing behind the scenes. Anyway, my two cents. Patiently optimistic.
(20min delay)