Media Updates, page-15278

Lets start with @jossette response where its correctly stated that "A2m already pay a 17% tariff to enter the US IF market. US milk is produced locally so that is no problem".
However, I do not entirely agree with the rest of the statement. Right now no-one in the world can guaranty that tariffs regime will not change. Even Trump has no idea what he will decide tomorrow. He could have a bad breakfast in the morning or lose golf game in the afternoon and decide to double tariffs on imported infant formula. Who knows, I don't. Btw, there plenty of news lately that nz govt already wettings their pants.
Then, what "market share in the premium end of IF" we are going to take and from whom? ~98% of the infant formula consumed in the United States is produced domestically with no tariffs with half of it distributed through WIC program. Export of IF from Canada to US virtually does not exist. European, well, biggest exporters of IF to US are Ireland and the Netherlands (Danone and Nestle) with total value by my estimates around US$30-40M (I have data for 2021 which stands at US$25M). Mainly they supply Specialty Formulas (which A2M does not have) or could be easily sourced from other locations with lesser or no tariffs. For comparison, according to StatNZ, in 2024 A2M exported to US ~150 ton of IF valued at NZ$2.275M (~US$1.35M) which a2 even did not bother include in to their report. So, how much market share we are going to take from them? 5%? another half a mil if we lucky. Yep, that may help to put these numbers in to the next report.
Btw, this tariff situation is also applied to spat between US and China. Most of the foreign IF sold in China either produced locally in China or sourced from location other than US or can be easily changed to avoid tariffs. And this is why big international companies have huge advantage, they have factories all over the world and can change their supply arrangements quite easily. So, not like others, I don't think this tariffs spat will produce much of advantage to anyone.

Now, about A2M and US market. I think I've mentioned that before, I still struggle to see what is the end game for a2 in the US and do not see any hints in what direction they are going. The only product they have is standard milk in some variations and that hasn't changed for years. I do not take into account IF as for now it's a margin of error. DB said they are not planning any significant moves/investments in IF over there until they have FDA approval. Now with new reality on our hands even when a2 gets approval there will be a big question if it will be a viable move. I think a2 will struggle in IF market over there. If they will be able to get into WIC program that will change the game but otherwise with current balance of power I don't see much of prospects. Which gets us back to the question what their next move could be? As I said their product offering is quite pathetic. I think they would have more success over there if they move into protein and RTD shakes. a2 need to look at what Coca-Cola has done with Fairlife. Sales of Fairlife drinks going nuts and growing rapidly. Shouldn't be much of a problem for a2 to get into action with lesser regulations. So, anyway, regarding IF I do not think we will get any major update out of the US until FDA approval is received. But would be nice to see them to get new products out.

PS. Well, I get it. People like good/positive news/information even if it does not have any substance to support it, it's easy to get misinformed if you do not follow events closely and I've seen quite a bit of these lately. Fine with me, but if you make investment decisions on hype and euphoria and don't check all the facts don't be surprised when price goes down to fundamental levels and don't blame company's management for that.