1) This is obviously the start of a trend line that eventually continues, that would have been spurred by a sensitive announcement of tangible value - no explanation needed.
2) At this point, i look forward for a 3rd spike and ascertain that the continuation from 1) is the beginning of an Elliot Wave, requiring 3 spikes and two strong down turns after the third spike.
3) The 3rd spike comes an confirmation is in place with an expectation of two down significant turns.
The down turns do not come, but instead a 4th spike ensues. This tells me that at the 4th spike 4), there must be news of some significance around that fuels a a medium amount o speculation, but not near as many sharesa are traded as back at point 1).
The psychology thsi represents is that investors saw solid foundation for investing at spike 1) and the volume confirms this at spike 2) with approx 15 million shares trading into positive Accumulation levels of Cashflow.
This cashflow is then reversed into negative territory just before it hits spike 4) at around 2nd June 2008. So investors were outweighed by daytraders here, whom sold out after the share hit a tweezer top of 42.5cents.
(BTW, this price is a psychological price threshold for future reference and this is conformed byt he June 2008 Tweezer tops which lacked support and where the share began to developed its downtrend).
Now, going back to spikes 4) and 5)... These were hype based spikes, or for a less sinister description they were spikes born of intense speculation due to an announcement or rumour i assume. Point 5) was the inflexion point, or more simply, when the investors lost faith in the rumour/got bad news/ or were expecting better news but were disappointed.
These are the determining factors for fiurther spikes by the share...and this is tested approx 2 yrs later, or in other wosrds, right about now at 4th January 2011 until now.
So lets take a look at the support and resistance levels, bearing in mind the predetermined psychological levels of 2008 - we must do this seeing as some investors who bought at 17th June 2008 have remained in and are yet to recoup their money, who will be using the support/resistance lines for entry/exit levels. (Note that many are calling 45c, a price above the highest psychological price of 42.5c, so in the absence of very good news, get your ears pricked for any hyping and rumour in order for this price to be promoted under wishful thinking).
Lets go to 15th Dec 2010, a useful indicator is the Volume. This is very bullish and is indicative of either good news or a substantial shareholder entering the company.
At this day, buyers began to step up to seller prices, regardless of where they were at - good bullish indicator. Money did not leave the building, it continued to have positive cashflow, so this is an honest bull sign.
On the 4th of Jan 2011, this reverses and we see negative cahsflow - fast min you - and sellers dropping down to wary buyers...this time will still be in current investors memories and they will be watching support/resistance lines from now on in order to find exit/entry points. Incidently, the price stall at 1st Jan 2010 was roughly equal to point 1), which was the first spike back in 2008.
So we can see support and resistance levels in action already at 25c At exactly this time/simultaneously, we see the Volume accumulation levels drop dramatically, and with the down turn, over $5 million was traded out of the company in traders losses, with sellers offloading faster than buyers could buy. The following day, approximately $4 million dollars of investor money went into the share based on hype/confidence and this was not met with support and the share went back down to 21c taking momentum with it.
This is the most important psychological hurdle that the price faces at this time.
So lets see how it is looking now, from this last months point of view...
I'll post this and come back shortly after analysing the month more deeply....
L
Now seeing as we are dealing with the higher end of a spike at this time, i am looking purely for startled rabbits and their effect on the share and why they were startled...
We have our first rabbit startle at #:17pm 19th Jan 2011. This time we see a lack of siupport at 20c and a revisit of 19c which found support after approx $400,000 left the building by way of negative money flow index and sellers giving into lower buy prices...so we see the day traders leaving the building in effect (ie, not enough to be a long term investor wave of sellers).
So as of 20c was hit over this last 10 days, we still have a lot of long term holders in the share, but day traders are all over it.
The day tarding community became heavliy involved in the share as of this day forward and we see huge and rythmic amounts of day trades all equalling roughly the same cash amount in their ebb and flow right up to last friday, when they seem to have backed off. While they were playing, they made a killing off the share on Wednesday and Thursday and some bought in slightly on Friday and sat waiting....then we have seen a lot less action as they are waiting for sentiment to be an indicator, or to create sentiment via disseminating good news about the company and promoting high expectations.
That has been going on for a week now as the share has not found intense support due to what i assume is a lack of news. From Monday to Friday, the Volume accumulation levels favoured buyers as sellers were selling down and the Money Flow levels have reduced only slightly, indicating that some have entered the share with genuine hopes, but not with overzealousness. On Firday, we can see a large seller at 1:41pm who left the building altogether with 470,000 shares traded within one minute - traded down to low priced buyer and giving momentum to a further drop.
Now we wait until monday, but for now the share is sitting right on what traders/investors hope to develope as a support line, but it may just as easily be a resistance line and cause the price to go down further. A lot of people will be noting the 470,000 seller on Firday and will be looking for a buyer of equal significance to nuetralise the effect of that big sell. If that buyer doesn't come, then i see around 16-17 c as the medium term target, before buyers step in again and re-test the 20c - 22c realms.
In conclusion, the share will need to first and foremost get over and determine a 20 support line...then it will need to muck around a bit in the mid 20's and find another support line before even considering going anywherr near the 40's.
On its way there, if it does go there (and without news to back it, it will only eventuate over a medium term basis if it does eventuate at all) it will need to forst break through the resistance of 36c...then at 40c and then it will need a lot of momentum to overcome the 50c level.
Those are its key milestones and that ios how the milestones will be crossed, in either a positive or negative manner for the shareprice IMO.
PS: right now, the share is looking for support before going higher into the 20's or 30's again, so there will be a lot of commentary made in effort to conjure that support, as usual. I am always looking for hype when i see a support or resistance level, which is wise, in the absence of news as it foretells pending momentum if it is persuasive enough, but does not determine long term strength as it is only based on the need for investors to close out positions and be rid of risk...which others inevitably take on.
Cheers
L
We see the same top-side target, your with fibonaccis and mine with the dynamic cocktail of Money Flows and Support and resistance lines and the effected they had on the Accumulation index and momentum last time the price was revisited 3 yrs ago.
I will not invest unless these dynamics are in a healthy harmony again, which they are not at this time, but which they were 3 weeks ago in a great way.
Cheers
L
It can go wither way and i have drawn on reasons that go back 3 yrs which highlight the psychological aprameters that will determine the coming price direction.
The share is amid several undetermined Support/resistance points and only clear positive communication from the company - announcements - or a huge amount of positive Money Flow from like-minded buyers will create a definitive reason for a spike from here. In the absences of such a dynamic, the share will sit and perhaps go downwards to test mid-teen prices, before moving back to around 20c.
I like to give an analysis for my claims to eliminate anyones right to call my claims a ramp or unfair.
L
P: Now do you think i was being genuine?
MNM Price at posting:
20.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
