lt target for mes

I've seen people on this forum saying that there's a big possibility that MES would be difficult to buy back in the 20s or even in the 30s in the near term---if you sold out today. This is kind of reasonable provided the liquidity of this stock is very poor, you sometimes can't find any descent quantity on sale. But let's just not talk about liquidity now, from a TA or FA perspective, how much higher do you believe this stock can run in 12 months and in 3 years?

To start, I'm guessing at somewhere betwwen 40-50c by Dec 2011 under a normal price discovery scenario, provided this SP uptrend remains intact. At last, by looking at its past reports, I'd think the fundamental would provide some support to this SP uptrend.(Disclaimer: I have not looked at all past reports in details one by one yet. Different FA opinions are welcome :D)

Looking further, $1.00(Pre-bull) or even $1.50(bull market) may be reached in the median term (2-3 years) provided that the following 2 conditions are met:
1)the Phase 4 Project proceeds well;
2)the market remains bullish;
3)no large capital raising.
That would put MES on a PE around 20 using the latest EPS figure. If you believe the industry that MES is in are going to perform well in the future, then MES is well too cheap, not to mention how much EPS P4 would add to MES in the future.

There seem to have unlimited reasons for the bulls, one can even mention the 12-5 plan announced by the PRC lately aiming at raising Chinese people's discretionary income, which would boost spending on clothing I suppose?...But on the flip side, China is undergoing a serious structural change in 2011 and onwards, which would certainly add in extra economical volatilities that can be reflected in the share market. Thus if we encounter another recession in China or something else significant bad things happen: e.g. Director related loans that MES guranteed defaulted, to the extent that MES was NOT forced into liquidation, then the SP may fall 50%-70% from current level.

To conclude, balancing up risk and reward, I believe MES offers very good value for high risk bearing investors.All we need is just:

GOOD LUCK!